美国定量宽松货币政策的外溢性分析-spillover analysis of quantitative easing monetary policy in the united states.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE IV Abstract In 2008, the American Subprime Mortgage Crisis turned to global financial crisis quickly. With the traditional monetary policies’ failure, United States and other developed countries started to use quantitative easing monetary policy(QE) and hoped to stabilize the confidence of market and stimulate economy recovery. On the basis of theoretical analysis on QE’s spillover effect, making United States as a specific object, this thesis is trying to figure out its QE’s spillover effect to other countryes, especially China. Firstly, it introduces QE1 and QE2, and analyzes the QE’s transmission mechanism. Secondly, it analyzes the 2 rounds QE’s spillover effect on international economy and mainly focuses on its influence on China’s economy and policy. At the end, the author also gives the forecast on the possibilities of QE3. There are several conclusions as follows. QE’s transmission mechanism. QE policies, combined with zero interest rate policy, the traditional and non-traditional monetary policies work together on domestic economy, and then its spillover effect spreads through international trade, capital flow, expectation, and other channels, then affects the foreign countries’ economy and the independence of its monetary and exchange policies. Theoretical analysis on QE’s spillover effect. Based on Mundell-Fleming model, the spillover effect is asymmetric, because it is highly related to the country’s exchange system and capital supervision system. QE’s implementation effect. The Fed was trying to increase market liquidity and stimulate macro economy recovery by changing central bank’s balance sheet and commercial bank credit. Because of its powerful spillover effect, the liquidity did not all go to the real economy, a part of it was trapped in the financial system, and another part outflowed to other countries, mainly to emerging economies. So QE’s effect is better in the short time then in the long run, and the harm outweighs benefit. US QE