生存研究中几中常见模型的贝叶斯估计-bayesian estimation of several common models in survival research.docxVIP

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生存研究中几中常见模型的贝叶斯估计-bayesian estimation of several common models in survival research.docx

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生存研究中几中常见模型的贝叶斯估计-bayesian estimation of several common models in survival research

I II 广西师范学院硕士学位论文 2012 The bayesian estimation of several common models in surival analysis ABSTRACT Since the 1970s survival analysis has been rapid development and useful in biology, medicine and other areas of survival analysis.With the theory of Bayesian integration, the survival analysis theory can effectively deal with the small sample model, incomplete data and the complex operating environment problem.Especially the MCMC method in the application of Bayesian analysis makes the very complex numerical of problem to solve easy.It makes the simula- tion of the parameters posterior distribution more convenient.It greatly promotes the Bayesian theory and its applications development unprecedented.The project is mainly to establish Bayesian model with missing covariates based on multivari- ate longitudinal data. We will further study this situation that this model will be extended to multivariate longitudinal data based on the values of covariates change over time. Mainly for the survival time for right censored, we use the likelihood function of right censored data to construct the the likelihood function of the exponen- tial regression model and Weibull regression model .We used Bayesian survival analysis theory to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters and use the MCMC method and the Gibbs sampling to simulate the posterior distribution of the parameters. We use the WinBUGS data simulation software to calculate the posterior distribution. When the prior information is insufficient, using Bayesian regression model to estimate will produce deviation. In view of this situation, we have to build the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The Cox proportional hazards regression model have the nature of parametric and non-parametric. Under the covariates along with the change of time change condition, we constructed the likelihood function for the Cox proportional hazards model and use the WinBUGS data simulation software to calculate the posterior d