人口年龄结构模型建模及预测.docVIP

上海交通大学 硕士学位论文 人口年龄结构模型建模和预测 姓名：虞丽萍 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：控制理论与控制工程 指导教师：袁景淇 人口年龄结构模型建模和预测 摘 要 人口是一个动态系统。人口变化对未来经济、社会的发展有着直接 的影响。人口年龄结构是人口研究的重要指标之一，人口年龄结构发展 趋势的预报对人口政策的制定有着非常重要的作用。本文以离散形式的 人口发展方程为主模型。在此基础上，分别建立了生育率、死亡率和迁 移模型，以预测人口生育率、死亡率、流动人口和人口年龄结构的变化 趋势。与传统模型相比，本文所提出的基于随机分布函数的生育率组合 模型和死亡率分段模型使模型精度得到了进一步的提高。 本文以中国历年统计数据为原始数据，验证了主模型和各子模型的 有效性，并预测了 2015 年上海市人口年龄结构，绘制了人口年龄树。 人口年龄树树形反映了人口结构的健康状态。通过分析人口年龄树的变 化趋势，可以了解人口结构所存在的问题，为政府调控人口提供科学依 据。 关键词：离散人口发展方程，生育率，死亡率，流动人口，人口预测， 人口年龄树 MODELING AND FORECASTING THE AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION ABSTRACT The population system is a dynamical system. The trend of a population will affect the development of the society and its economy. The age structure is one of the most important indexes in population research. The forecast of age structure plays an important role in making population policies. A discrete model of population development was applied in this paper. Fertility model, mortality model and immigration model were also established to forecast the fertility, mortality, immigration population and the age structure. Compared with traditional functions, both the composite fertility model which is based on random distribution functions and the segmented mortality model improved the models’ accuracy. Historical Chinese population statistics were used to prove the validity of the models referred in this paper. The age structure of Shanghai in 2015 was forecasted and displayed in a tree-like graph. The shape of the population tree reflects the health condition of its age structure. By analyzing the development trend of the age structure, we can find population problems and provide scientific evidence for government to control the population. KEY WORDS: Discrete Population Development Equations, Fertility, Mortality, Immigration, Population Forecast, Age Structure Population Tree 图片目录 图 1 人口金字塔··········································