Copula方法香溪河流域降雨―径流相关性分析基于最大熵.docVIP

Copula方法香溪河流域降雨―径流相关性分析基于最大熵 　　摘要：基于1991年-2008年香溪河流域降雨量和径流量资料，将最大熵Copula（MEC）方法应用于流域降雨-径流相关性分析中。结果表明：MEC方法生成的边缘分布能够有效拟合降雨量和径流量的观测值，且在边缘分布确定的过程中无需对线型进行假设，以均值、标准差、偏度和峰度作为约束也能够很好的体现变量的统计特征；GumbelHougaard Copula函数对于降雨量和径流量联合分布的拟合效果较好；香溪河流域降雨量和径流量存在上尾相关性，这对防洪排涝有着重要的作用，同时也为流域工程规划设计工作提供了参考依据。 　　关键词：最大熵；Copula函数；香溪河流域；降雨；径流；相关性；联合分布 　　中图分类号：P343 文献标志码：A 文章编号2016 　　Correlation study of rainfall and runoff in Xiangxi River watershed 　　using the Maximum EntropyCopula Method 　　YANG Aili1，HUANG Guohe1，KONG Xiangming2，HAO Zhenda3 　　（1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering，Xiamen University of Technology，Xiamen 361024，China； 　　2.MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization，North 　　China Electric Power University，Beijing 102206，China； 　　3.Department of Assets Administration，Central University of Finance and Economics，Beijing 100081，China） 　　Abstract：Based on the rainfall and runoff in Xiangxi River Watershed，this study applied a maximum entropycopula （MEC）method to investigate the relation ship between the rainfall and runoff of watershed.Results show that：the generated marginal distributions of the rainfall and runoff can effectively fit the observed values without any hypothesis，and the statistical characteristics of random variables can be reflected well as the constraints of mean，standard deviation，skewness and kurtosis；Among all the Copula functions used，Gumbel hougaard copula showed the best effect of fitting generation the joint distribution of the rainfall and runoff；the upper tail dependence was observed between the rainfall and runoff in Xiangxi River Watershed，which not only can play a great role in flood and drainage control in Xiangxi River Watershed，but also provide a reference basis for watershed project planning and design. 　　Key words：maximum entropy；Copula；Xiangxi River Watershed；rainfall；runoff；correlation；joint distribution 　　水文频率分析是认识径流变化规律的有效途径，生成单变量的分布函数是常用的频率分析方法[13]。由于各个水文变量之间存在相关性，单