何英华effectsofhrs.pdf

户籍制度对中国国内迁移的影响 The Effect of Household Registration System on Internal Migration in China Yinghua HE* 何英华 November, 2003 [Paper prepared for the 3rd annual conference of Chinese Economics Association, December 20-21, Shanghai, China] Abstract: Household Registration (Hukou) System was one of the main institutions of China’s former planned economy, and still remains as a major measure of regulating the society. The paper models the determination migrant’s hukou status. In the model, Hukou status of the migrants is jointly determined by migrants and the government; it involves the problems of partial observability and multiple criteria for selectivity. Unlike the Hukou decision of the government, he Hukou decision of individual takes into account the attributes of his origin; the paper takes this as the identification of the jointly decision model. To correct the selectivity bias, the paper adopts a 2-step estimation strategy—firstly a nested logit migration decision model for reduced form estimation, secondly a joint decision model for the estimation of Hukou status determination. The paper then construct a proxy for the Strictness of Household Registration System (SHRS) of different provinces in Mainland China, which is the likelihood for the government to grant a Hukou to a certain migrant. Based on the evaluation of SHRS, the estimation of the effect on the internal migration becomes feasible. Using the 2000 census data, the results reveal that the high SHRS attracted both urban and rural laborers to migrate there. Keywords: Household Registration System, Partial Observability, Selectivity Bias with Multiple Criteria, Joint Decision Model, Nested Logit Model. *