汇丰银行全球生物仿制药行业研究报告.pdf

Healthcare April 2011 Sustained dose Biosimilars – Centre stage Asia The global pharma market reached cUSD830bn last year, driven by emerging markets. Biologic drugs – manufactured proteins used to treat a wide range of diseases – accounted for c14% of this total. We estimate these ‘biologics’ will grow a great deal faster than the overall pharma market, driven largely by drugs at the forefront of targeted therapies for cancers and auto-immune diseases known as monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). But the biologics market is set to see major changes; more affordable copies of original biologics – biosimilars – are about to expand massively as patents on expensive blockbuster originals expire. By 2015 we forecast biosimilars to account for c9% (USD15bn) of total biologics, a CAGR of c40%. Still, regulatory, technical and capital barriers to entry are high, particularly in developed markets. Timing is critical for biosimilars producers – winners need drug approvals and facilities in place early. We initiate OW on Celltrion, LG Life Science and 3SBio and OW(V) on United Labs. We like United’s insulin exposure and 3SBio’s EPO/TPO growth. For mAb biosimilars, we like Celltrion’s global leadership and LGLS’s potential to expand its operations. By Nam Park and Carolyn Poon Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the