波士顿关于当前房地产形势的探究.pdfVIP

31 May 2005 Asia Pacific/China Investment Strategy Equity Research Research team Shanghai Property Sector Vincent Chan 852 2101 6568 vincent.chan@ A reality check Victor Kwok 852 2101 6437 victor.kwok@ • Shanghai accounted for 20.4% of China’s residential property sales, but only for 5.4% Karena Fung GDP in 2004. A correction in this market could have a significant impact on national 852 2101 6956 property prices, as well as the macro economy as a whole. karena.fung@ Raymond Ho, CA • We gathered and consolidated secondary-market price and transaction information by 852 2101 6407 districts in Shanghai. Based on these statistics: 1) market prices are holding up much raymond.ho@ better in tier-1 districts and 2) up until April 2005, the average unit price was still rising China Research Team in all districts. However, primary-market prices already started to decline in April. Vincent Chan (Head of Research) • Secondary-market transactions have declined rapidly in the past few months, particularly in volume terms and in the peripheral districts. From January to April 2005, Angello Chan (Utilities Coal) the value of average monthly transactions declined 2% compared to 2H04, and monthly Karen Chan transaction volume, in square-metre and unit terms, dropped 21% and 26%, (Airlines) respectively. Trina Chen (Basic