泥石流堰塞湖影响区域评估及其应急预案.docVIP

泥石流堰塞湖影响区域评估及其应急预案 　　摘要：2008年汶川“5?12”地震后，汶川震区内大量新、老泥石流沟的泥石流活动频度增加，致使泥石流堰塞湖的形成几率也随之增大。通常泥石流所形成的堰塞体稳定性较差，从形成至溃决通常在几小时内发生，人工工程干预的可能性小。因此，做好堰塞湖溃决洪水影响区域评估和溃决洪水应急预案，成为必要且有效的减灾手段之一。但泥石流堰塞湖的溃决洪水既不同于一般意义的洪水，也不同于人工大坝的溃决，是过去应急预案研究中较少涉及的灾种。选择汶川磨子沟作为研究对象，在泥石流堰塞湖溃决危险性评估基础上提出溃决洪水应急预案的编制原则和方法：首先确定泥石流堰塞湖可能溃决的最大洪峰流量、淹没高度、泛滥范围和持续时间；其后，实地调查居民点，圈定洪水淹没范围和危险区人口数，并根据地形条件制定可能的撤退路线；最后，结合政府部门的行政安排，制定险情通报程序、险情发生安全保障措施和预案启动、结束的时间节点。试图为其余泥石流堰塞湖溃决洪水危害应急预案制定提供借鉴，提升应对突发泥石流堰塞湖溃决事件的效率。 　　关键词：泥石流；堰塞湖；溃决洪水；影响区域；应急预案 　　中图分类号：TV122 文献标志码：A 文章编号2015 　　Assessment of influence area and emergency plan for debrisflow dammed lake 　　-A case study in Mozi Gully of Wenchuan，Sichuan 　　LIU Jingjing1，2，SUN Zhengchao3，CHENG Zunlan1 　　（1.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process， 　　Chinese Academy of Sciences Ministry of Water Conservancy，Chengdu 610041，China； 　　2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100039，China 　　3.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Southwest Petroleum University，Chengdu 610500，China） 　　Abstract：After the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake，a large number of new and old debrisflow gullies increase their activities，and the possibility of dammed lake formed by debris flow increases as well.The dam formed by debris flow is unstable， and there are only a few hours from the dam formation to outburst，so it is difficult to conduct manmade engineering intervention.Assessment of influence area and establishment of emergency plan for debrisflow dammed lake are necessary and effective for disaster reduction.The damfailure flood caused by debrisflow dammed lake is different from the traditional flood or the outburst of manmade dam，which is an infrequent disaster type in the emergency plans.The Mozi Gully was chosen as the study object，and the principles and preparation methods of emergency plans were put forward on the basis of risk assessment for the outburst of debrisflow dammed lake.First，the pote