基于定量递归分析天然气管线输送流量均衡调度方法.docVIP

基于定量递归分析天然气管线输送流量均衡调度方法 　　摘 要：通过对天然气管线输送流量进行优化均衡调度设计，实现对天然气管线运行工况的准确监测。传统方法采用线性时间序列Wolf一步预测方法进行天然气管线输送流量调度，没能有效挖掘天然气管线输送网络中天然气流量的非线性特征，导致调度的准确性不好。提出一种基于定量递归分析的天然气管线输送流量均衡调度方法。首先构建了天然气管线的网络配置结构模型，进行输送流量序列的信号模型构建和非线性时间序列分析，对天然气流量进行相空间重构，在高维相空间中进行递归图构建，实现对天然气管线输送流量的定量递归分析，达到流量准确预测和均衡调度的目的，实现算法改进。仿真实验分析结果表明，采用该方法进行天然气管线输送流量均衡调度，天然气输送运行的工况得到改善，输送配置的均衡性较好，流量预测精度较高，调度效能增强。 　　关键词：定量递归分析；天然气管线；流量；均衡调度 　　中图分类号：TP391 文献标识码：A 　　Abstract： Through the optimization of the natural gas pipeline transportation flow to optimize the balanced scheduling design， to achieve an accurate monitoring of the operating conditions of natural gas pipeline. Traditional method using one step prediction method for linear time series Wolf for natural gas pipeline transportation scheduling flow， could not effectively tap nonlinear characteristic of natural gas pipeline to transport gas flow in a network， and lead to the bad accuracy of the scheduling. A natural gas pipeline transportation flow balancing scheduling method based on quantitative recursive analysis is proposed. First construct a network configuration structure model of natural gas pipeline， propose transportation flow sequence signal model construction and nonlinear time series analysis； Next provide the gas flow of phase space reconstruction， recursive graph construction in a high-dimensional phase space， realize recurrence quantification analysis of natural gas pipeline transportation flow， achieve flow prediction and balancing scheduling algorithm improvement. Analysis of the experimental results show that using the method of natural gas pipeline transportation flow balancing scheduling， natural gas conveying operation is improved， the transport configuration balance good， traffic prediction with high accuracy， furtherly the effectiveness of scheduling is enhanced. 　　Key words： quantitative recursive analysis； natural gas pipeline； flow rate； equilibrium scheduling 　　0 引言 　　西气东输工程是我国进行天然气开发和运输的战略性工程，通过西气东输管道工程，实现对天然气由我国西部地区向东部地