基于投影寻踪模型长三角经济发展与生态效率耦合协调性研究.docVIP

基于投影寻踪模型长三角经济发展与生态效率耦合协调性研究 　　摘要：运用投影寻踪模型对2003-2011年长三角地区各地级市的经济发展与生态效率进行综合评价，并在此基础上对两系统间的耦合协调状况和相对发展状况进行了实证分析。结果表明，从时间上看，长三角地区的经济发展整体较稳定，但局部城市呈微量动态波动，而从空间上看，经济发展呈现出趋同集聚、优劣分异态势；区域生态效率总体不断提高，但空间分化较为显著，格局演变呈现出高低集聚、趋于改善的不规则分布，同时跃迁现象较多；经济发展与生态效率间的耦合协调分布经历了两极分化严重到多数局部均衡的演变，两子系统间的耦合协调性在新型城镇化时代背景下不断提升，极化现象有减缓趋势。 　　关键词： 经济发展；生态效率；投影寻踪模型；耦合协调度；相对发展度；长三角地区 　　中图分类号：F259；X22 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2015）16-4088-06 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.16.066 　　Research on Coupled Coordination between Economic Development and Ecological Efficiency of Yangtze River Delta Based on Projection Pursuit Model 　　HUANG Meng-yuana， BAI Cai-quanb，c， HE Yi-qinga， YIN Hai-zhaoa，b， ZHANG Ronga，b 　　（a.School of Economics and Management， b.Econometric Research Institution； c. School of Science， Nanchang University， Nanchang 330031，China） 　　Abstract：Using Projection Pursuit Model， the economic development and ecological efficiency from 2003 to 2011 among prefecture-level cities of Yangtze River Delta were comprehensively assessed， and on this basis， conditions of the coupled coordination and relative development between two systems were analyzed from empirical perspective. It concluded that， from the time， the economic development of Yangtze River Delta was stable comparatively as a whole， while there was slight dynamic fluctuation in some cities. However from the space， the economic development showed a trend of convergence and divergence high and low. The regional ecological efficiency， despite the existence of significant spatial differentiation， showed a continuous improvement as a whole. The ecological efficiency pattern evolution indicated an irregular distribution of high and low concentration while an improvement tend. Meanwhile， significant transition phenomenon existed. The coupled coordination distribution between economic development and ecological efficiency went through an evolution from serious polarization to partial equilibrium in most cities. Under the historical ba