ofmacroeconomics(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布.pptVIP

CHAPTER 17 The Future of Macroeconomics Questions What might the future of macroeconomics bring? How might the macroeconomics taught two decades from now be different from the macroeconomics taught today? What have been the principal changes in the way macroeconomics is taught over the past twenty years? Questions What additional changes took place twenty years before that--from roughly 1960 to roughly 1980? What direction will macroeconomics take if the real business cycle research program is successful? What direction will macroeconomics take if the new Keynesian research program proves successful? Questions How will economists understand the foundations behind the power of monetary policy? The Past of Macroeconomics A 1936 book by John Maynard Keynes shifted economic research and macroeconomic thought into new and different directions the role of expectations of future profits in determining investment the volatility of expectations of profits the power of the government to affect the economy through policy the multiplier process The Past of Macroeconomics After World War II, more macroeconomic theory was developed the IS-LM model was created the relationship between interest rates and the money supply was investigated the difference between the behavior of the macroeconomy in the flexible-price long run and the fixed-price short run was clarified The Past of Macroeconomics But macroeconomics theory in 1960 was still incomplete no discussion of the relationship between production and inflation no detailed model of expectations the short run was seen as lasting for decades fiscal policy was emphasized, while the role of monetary policy was downplayed estimates of the multiplier were much higher than we believe now to be correct The Past of Macroeconomics Between 1960 and 1980, two powerful critiques of the conventional wisdom of macroeconomics occurred the first was by Milton Friedman the standard models overestimated the government’s ability to control the ec