上海市房地产价格分布和泡沫度研究.doc

上海市房地产价格分布和泡沫度研究 上海市房地产价格分布和泡沬度研究 摘要 本文主要研究了上海市房地产的分布和泡沬程度,在从各大房地产网站搜集和整理 大量数据的基础上进行了如下研究:首先是对上海房价进行拟合,看其服从怎样的分布; 其次是把空间经济学的知识应用到上海房地产市场,利用经纬度画出等高线,看一下房 价在空间上是如何分布的;最后以野口悠纪雄的土地价格模型为基础,引入了人口增长 率、CW增长率、可支配收入增长率和GDP增长率等供需因素对房地产价格的影响,建 立新的房地产定价模型。进一步采用模型计算上海房地产的无泡沫价格,与实际收集到 的房地产价格数据进行比较,并计算出泡沫程度。本文还根据其他学者对房地产周期的 划分,并结合各年份房地产的相关政策,对房地产泡沫程度划分的合理性进行解释。 通过实证研究我们发现:(1)上海市的房地产价格分布总体上服从幂率分布。(2) 上海市房地产价格在空间上呈现多中心的特点,并且房价与其距离中心地段的距离成反 比例关系。(3)上海市房地产的泡沫度在2004年至2010年大致上表现出上升的趋势。 2004年至2006年属于轻微泡沫年份,2007年以后进入了严重泡沫期,并且在2005年 和2010年这两年房地产泡沫程度都有所回落。 关键词:幂率分布;空间分布;房地产泡沫;收益还原法;市场供需 第II页 华东理工大学硕士学位论文 The Research of Shanghai Real Estate Price Distribution and Foam Degree Abstract The article mainly studies Shanghai real estate distribution and foam degree1. We collect and sort large quantities of data from the real estate website and do the following research: Firstly, Shanghai house price is fitted and see its distribution form. Secondly, we make the spatial economics apply to the shanghai real estate market and draw contour by latitude and longitude to see the distribution of house prices in space. Finally, Based on Yekou Youjixiong land price model, we introduce the supply and demand factors including population growth rate, real estate investment rate, CPI growth rate, disposable income growth rate, GDP growth rate and et al,which have influence on real estate price, and establish a new real estate pricing model. Furthermore, we calculate foamless price of Shanghai real estate using this model, and make a comparison between foamless price and actual market price to calculate the foam degree. Finally, based on other scholars#039; opinion about the real estate cycle division and related real estate policy published every year, we give a rational explanation about the division of the real estate bubble. Through the empirical research we found: (1) Shanghai real estate price distribution obeys power -law distribution. (2) Shanghai real estate prices show the characteristic of many center