中国农业经济增长的空间分布及相关性-湖南农业大学学报.PDF

第11卷第5 期 湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版) Vol ．11 No ．5 20 10 年10 月 Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Sciences) Oct ．20 10 中国农业经济增长的空间分布及相关性 ——基于31个省区1985—2008年的面板数据分析 a a a,b 曾国平 ，罗航艳 ，曹跃群 (重庆大学a.贸易与行政学院；b.欠发达地区经济发展研究院，重庆 400044) 摘 要：利用空间计量的方法，对中国1985—2008 年31 个省区农业经济发展的空间相关性、集聚特征及其空间 动态演变趋势进行了分析和研究。研究结果表明，中国省际农业经济活动存在显著的非随机性空间集聚特征，存 在小幅收敛趋势；东中部地区主要为高— 高类型集聚区域，西部地区主要为低—低类型集聚区域，非典型省区较 少；高— 高集聚类型的集聚区域的空间联系带动力增强的趋势明显。 关 键 词：农业增长；Moran I 指数；空间相关性；空间计量分析 中图分类号：F323.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1009-2013(20 10)05-0001-06 Spatial distribution and correlation of agriculture economic development in China: Based on the panel data in 1985—2008 of 31 provinces, autonomous region and municipality a a a,b ZENG Guo-ping , LUO Hang-yan , CAO Yue-qun (a.College of Trade and Administration; b.Institute of Economic Development in Underdeveloped Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China) Abstract: Based on the panel data of Chinas 31 regions during 1985 ～2008, this paper measures the spatial autocorrelation, spatial cluster characteristics and the trend of spatial dynamic evolution of agriculture economic development by using the spatial econometrics analysis. The analysis result is that there are significant features of non-random spatial cluster and convergence trend. The Eastern is mainly High-High type cluster region, the Western region is mainly Low-Low type cluster area, and less atypical provinces. There is an obviously strengthen trend in s