北京市甲型H1N1流感建模与仿真研究.pdfVIP

Advances in Applied Mathematics 应用数学进展, 2015, 4(3), 292-298 Published Online August 2015 in Hans. /journal/aam /10.12677/aam.2015.43036 Modeling and Simulation of Influenza A (H1N1) in Beijing * Xin Wen, Yakui Xue , Zhiqiang Xia Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi * Email: wenxindd@ rd th th Received: Aug. 3 , 2015; accepted: Aug. 19 , 2015; published: Aug. 24 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract According to the mechanism and characteristics of influenza A (HIN1), this essay constructed a mathematical model. Then, the article got a threshold R0 indicating whether the disease had been controlled or not. At the same time, this essay used the prevention data of Beijing in 2009 when the epidemic broke out simulating the model. The parameters of the model, which got sensitivity analysis, are clear, and data source is reliable. The model reflects the process of the epidemic spread, and intuitively describes the development of influenza A (HIN1). Thus, this article is useful in providing decisions for the prevention and control of the epidemic. Keywords Influenza A (HIN1), The Basic Reproductive Rate, Simulation 北京市甲型H1N1流感建模与仿真研究 * 温 馨，薛亚奎 ，夏智强 中北大学理学院，山西 太原 * Email: wenxindd@ 收稿日期：2015年8月3 日；录用日期：2015年8月19 日；发布日期：2015年8月24 日 摘 要 根据甲型H1N1流感疫情的传播机理和特点构建数学模型，得到控制疾病流行与否的阈值R ，同时以北京