山东省2001年2010年用水趋势和影响因素分析.docVIP

山东省2001年2010年用水趋势和影响因素分析 　　摘要： 　　准确分析用水量影响因素和科学预测用水量，对于实现水资源的优化配置，缓解经济增长与水资源日趋尖锐的矛盾，具有十分重要的意义。通过对山东省2001年-2010年用水量进行分析，得到如下结论：用水结构中生产用水所占比例最大，其次为生活用水，生态用水最小，总用水量中第一产业用水比例最大，接近75%（占总用水量）；总用水量自2005年后总体上呈缓慢上升趋势，第二产业用水量呈下降趋势，第三产业、生活用水量年际变化不大，生态用水量呈上升趋势；影响用水量的主要因素包括三次产业产值、灌溉面积和人口，降雨量对第一产业用水有一定影响。 　　关键词：用水量；用水结构；用水趋势；用水影响因素 　　中图分类号：TV213.4；F323.213文献标识码：A文章编号： 　2014 　　Analysis of Water Consumption Trend and Its Impact Factors from 2001 to 2010 in Shandong Province 　　ZHANG Ruita，ZHANG Qinghua，JIANG Lei，ZHAI Xingtao 　　（College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering，Shandong Agricultural University，Taian 271018，China） 　　Abstract：Accurate analysis of the impact factors of water consumption and scientific prediction of water consumption are of important significance to achieve the optimal allocation of water resources and alleviate the contradiction between economic growth and water resources.Water consumption of Shandong Province was analyzed from 2001 to 2010.The results showed that the industrial water consumption accounts for the largest proportion in the water consumption structure，followed by domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption.The first industrial water consumption accounted for 75% of total water consumption，which was the largest proportion The total water consumption showed a slow increasing trend since 2005，while the second industrial water consumption showed a decreasing trend.The variations of third industrial water consumption and domestic water consumption were insignificant，while the ecological water consumption showed an increasing trend.The main factors affecting water consumption included the output value of three industries，irrigated area，and population.In addition，rainfall has a certain impact on the first industrial water consumption. 　　Key words：water consumption；water utilization structure；water consumption trend；impact factors of water consumption 　　山东省属于温带季风气候 ，全省水资源总量303亿m3，人均水资源占有量334 m3，仅为全国