南水北调东线工程突发性水的环境风险管理的研究.docVIP

南水北调东线工程突发性水的环境风险管理的研究 　　摘要:随着突发性事故发生的频率不断增加,人们已开始重视对突发性事故的研究。南水北调东线工程在其运行过程中会遇到各种不确定因素,对调水系统的水质造成严重的威胁,影响工程的正常运行。现首先分析了突发性水环境风险的特征,结合南水北调东线工程,从风险识别、风险评估与预测等方面分析南水北调东线工程运行期突发性水环境风险的发生概率与危害,并从风险源、风险传播过程、风险接受者等3方面制定一系列防治措施进行管理,降低其发生概率及损失,保证东线工程正常运行。 　　关键词:突发性水环境风险;南水北调;东线工程;风险管理 　　中图分类号:TV68文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)05-0017-05 　　 　　Study on the Emergency Water Environmental Risk Management During Operating Period in the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion 　　 　　XIAO Wei-hua??1,PANG Ying-ying2,4??,ZHANG Lian-hui??3,ZUO Qi-ting??4,PEI Yuan-sheng??1 　　(1.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038,China;2.Tianjin Lonwin Technology Development 　　Limited Corporation, Tianjin 300170,China;3.Jixian County Water Conservancy Bureau, Tianjin 301900,China) 　　4. Center of Water Science Research, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China) 　　Abstract: 　　As an increasing occurrence of emergency environment pollution, a study on it had been paid more attention. For the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion,various uncertain factors may emerge during its operating period, which will influence its normal operation and threaten water quality in water system. Based on the characteristics of the emergency water environment risk,the frequency and hazards of emergency water environment risk from the risk identification,risk assessment,risk treatment and risk management are analyzed in the paper.The preventive measures from the sources,process and receptor are proposed to bring down the frequency and loss,and ensure the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion to operate successfully. 　　Key words: emergency environment pollution risk;South-to-North Water Transfer;Eastern Route;risk management 　　 　　随着经济社会快速发展、人口不断增加以及气候变化等一系列因素影响,各类环境事故不断发生,如1984年印度帕博尔农药厂爆炸事故、1986年切尔诺贝利核电站泄漏事件,以及2005年我国松花江污染事件。分析这些突发性事故的原因,主要是由两方面原因造成:一是本身存在隐患,如管理不善、生产流程出现漏洞等;二是应对这些突发性事故的措施不力,不能在事故发生的第一时间控制污染传播,从而造成了极大危害。这些事故的发生为人类敲响了警钟,需要加强突发性环境风