消防专业论文-城市火灾形势的主成分聚类分析.docVIP

PAGE III PAGE I 摘 要 近年来，随着我国经济建设的迅速发展，消防工作也进入了跨越式发展阶段，历史的经验教训和当前的火灾防控工作一再证明，要做好消防工作必须科学、客观地分析火灾形势；研究不同时期、不同地区消防工作的特点；研究火灾事故发生规律，才能有效地遏制火灾上升势头。随着我国城市化进程的加快，发生火灾的风险也在不断加大，并且城市火灾具有生产集中、财富集中、人员集中、建筑物集中的特点，一旦发生火灾，必然会对社会经济发展造成巨大损失，对人民的生命财产安全造成巨大的威胁。因此，如何合理地评估城市火灾形势是一个值得研究的课题。 为了深入系统研究影响火灾形势的重点和难点问题，掌握火灾发生、发展的规律，采取有效措施加强火灾防控工作。本文首先分析比较主成分分析方法、聚类分析方法，结合两种方法的优势，建立了主成分聚类分析方法的数学模型，运用主成分聚类分析方法评价城市火灾形势。然后在合理选取评价指标的基础上，对2006-2008三年新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市各主城区火灾数据进行综合分析，运用SPSS软件进行求解，将乌鲁木齐市各主城区按火灾危险等级进行分类。分析结果与实际相符，为正确分析城市火灾形势提供了量化方法。最后分析了经济因素对乌鲁木齐市火灾形势的影响，确定了乌鲁木齐城市火灾防控重点，为消防部门分步骤分项目地预防和遏制火灾事故提供理论依据和决策支持。 关键词：火灾；火灾统计；综合评价；主成分聚类分析；防控  Abstract With the rapidly development of China economic construction, the fire working have stepped into the stage of great-leap-forward development. The proof of the history lessons and the current fire situation told that we must analysis the fire situation with the scientific and object attitude; study the fire characteristics in different times and different sections; study the law of occurrence and prevention of fire accidents, so that we can effectively curb the upward trend of the fire. With the accelerate of urbanization, the risk of fire is increasing. Especially the urban fires have the characteristics that the focus of the productions, wealth, people and buildings, if we meet the fire and other major disasters in city, it must lead to great losses of social-economic and have an enormous threat to peoples lives and property. Therefore it’s a worthy of research that rationally evaluate city fire. In order to study on the key points of fire situation, grasp the law of fire occurred, and take effective measures to strengthen fire control work. This paper analysis the principal component analysis and the clustering analysis, combining the advantages of two methods, established the mathematical model for principal component cluster analysis, using this method to evaluate urban fire situation. Then based on the selection of evaluation index reasonably, an