城市轨道交通沿线物业增值效益研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docx

城市轨道交通沿线物业增值效益研究 摘 要 为缓解城市轨道交通建设的资金压力，发达国家和地区实施了溢 价回收的策略，将轨道交通建设引起的土地增值外部效益内部化。其 中，基于车站及其周边土地联合开发的溢价回收模式取得了良好的效 果，结合我国当前正在进行的大规模城市轨道交通建设，对轨道交通 沿线物业增值效益回收进行研究很有现实意义。 论文以外部性理论为出发点，分析了城市轨道交通对沿线土地利 用和物业价值的影响机理，发现轨道交通外部效益内部化的关键在于 要进行外部物业增值效益的定量估算和内部运作模式的策略研究。基 于此，论文采用 Meta 回归分析方法对影响物业增值效益计算的环境因 素和方法因素进行系统定量分析，确定各因素的影响大小，结果表明： 土地物业类型、离车站距离、交通可达性是影响物业价值的主要因素； 轨道交通在建设初期升值效益最大；选用特征价格模型、收集面板或 时间序列数据、运用半对数或双对数回归函数进行计算更易得到可靠 的增值估算结果。通过对商业化运作模式、建营相离模式和联合开发 模式在理论和实证运行效益上的对比，发现基于联合开发的溢价回收 模式实施效果好、可操性强，最值得借鉴。 论文在增值效益估算的变量确定和方法选择上开展了初步的研究 工作，同时能给城市政策制定者就轨道交通周边土地规划开发提供一 定的参考。 关键词：城市轨道交通，物业，增值效益，Meta 回归分析 A STUDY ON URBAN MASS TRANSIT’S VALUE-ADDED BENEFITS ON PROPERTY ABSTRACT Urban mass transit projects turn to value capture measures to internalize external benefits, in order to lighten the burden of financing in some developed regions. Remarkable investment return have been achieved through the program based on integrated development of mass transit station and neighbored are. Combination of ongoing large-scale urban rail transit construction, it’s important to make a study on the value-added benefits of rail traffic along the property. Based on the theory of externalities, this thesis analyzed the impact mechanism of urban rail transit on the land use and real estate value, and found that the key to internalize the external benefits of rail transportation is the quantitative estimation of external benefits of real estate value and the study of inner working strategy. This thesis conducts a meta-regression analysis on contextual and methodological factors affecting estimated land/property values increase. The results showed that type of property, distance to rail station and accessibility are the main factors affecting land/property values. And studies which used Hedonic price model, collected panel or time-series data and selected a semi-log or double-log model would show more reliable results. After comparison of the Commercial operation mode, the build-operate-off mode and join