城市化与区域经济协调发展研究-统计学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 城市化与区域经济的发展是两个不可分离的，他们之间互相影响互相作用。 国内外学者普遍认为，地区经济水平提高能推动城市化的进程，而城市化的发 展能引起的劳动生产率提高、科技创新等外部性经济，进而推动区域经济发展。 在我国实现城乡统筹发展的关键时期，对于如何把握城市化与区域经济发展的 内在规律，提高地区城市化水平、加快经济发展速度、进一步提升城市化与区 域经济发展的协调度，已然成为当前的重要课题。 本文在归纳和总结相关理论和研究的基础上，梳理了城市化与区域经济发 展的作用机制，分析了我国城市化与区域经济发展的特征，找出我国城市化与 区域经济的发展的不足之处。然后，从静态的线性回归和动态的 VAR 模型找出 城市化与区域经济两者的互动机制和长短期的均衡关系。在此基础上，构建了 一个由 6 个指标层、20 个指标组成的评价指标体系，先利用主成分分析法求取 各指标权重系数，然后分别计算各省市城市化和区域经济综合发展水平。并引 用协调度、协调发展度模型，对我国 31 个省区 2000、2006 和 2012 年城市化与 区域经济的协调发展程度进行测算与比较。找出城市化与区域经济发展水平的 和城市化与区域经济协调度、协调发展度较差的省份，并提出应对之策。 关键词：城市化；区域经济；统计描述；协调度；协调发展度 I ABSTRACT Urbanization and the development of regional economy are the he process of mutual influence, interaction, causal. Scholars generally agree that regional economic level can promote the process of urbanization, the urbanization can lead to the development of the labor productivity of externalities such as economy, science and technology innovation, and promote regional economic development. At the critical period of urban and rural areas implementation in our country. It has became the important subject to how to grasp the inherent law, improve the level and enhance the coordination development of the urbanization and economic. Based on the induction and summary on relevant theories and research, this article combs the operating mechanisms of urbanization and regional economic, analyses the characteristics, and points out the regional insufficiencies in our country. Secondly, find the short-term and long-term equilibrium relationship of urbanization and regional economy by the static linear regression and dynamic VAR model. On the basis, the article build a evaluation index system which consists six index classes, twenty indicators，and determine the index weight by principal component analysis. Calculate the index of urbanization and regional economy development level respectively. And reference the coordination degree and coordination development degree model, calculate and compare the degree of urbanizati