房地产上市公司财务预警模型研究-会计学专业论文.docxVIP

Classified Index: F275.5 U.D.C: 336 Dissertation for the Master Degree in Management STUDY ON FINACIAL EARLY-WARNING MODEL OF REAL ESTATE LISTED COMPANY Candidate： Ma Chunli Supervisor： Associate Pro.Zhang Jianying Academic Degree Applied for： Master of Management Speciality： Accounting Affiliation： School of Management Date of Defence： June, 2011 Degree-Conferring-Institution： Harbin Institute of Technology 摘 要 2001 年，中国加入 WTO 后，国民经济高速发展，在“十一五”规划期间 GDP 增长速度高达 8%，经济的高速发展带来的是各个行业的快速发展以及资 本市场的快速成长。但是在高增长的同时也带来了高通胀，投资者纷纷将手中 的资金投向固定资产，国内全社会固定资产投资同样也是处在一个高增长的水 平，固定资产投资中大部分资金都投向了房地产行业。社会大众对商品住宅不 断膨胀的需求，导致房地产开发不断升温，但是房地产行业具有回收期长、资 金变现能力差等特征，并且近两年由于房价的飙涨，国家出台了许多打压房价 的政策，这些因素都会成为对房地产企业出现财务危机的诱因。因此，为房地 产行业构建一个财务预警系统迫在眉睫。 本文在回顾与评述国内外财务预警领域研究成果的基础上，分析和评价了 国内外已有的各种财务预警模型的优缺点，按照模型的特点将它们归为几类。 为了构建适合房地产行业的财务预警模型，本文对房地产行业现状进行了分析， 总结评述了目前国内房地产行业财务预警的研究状况，由此作为出发点研究适 合房地产行业的财务预警模型。在建模实证过程中，本文不仅考虑了财务指标， 而且还考虑了公司治理方面的非财务指标， 构建了财务指标神经网络预警模型 和引入非财务指标的神经网络预警模型，同时运用 Logistic 回归分析法和判别 分析法分别构建了相应的财务指标预警模型和引入非财务指标的预警模型，最 后经过比较，验证了神经网络预警模型的有效性，以及引入非财务指标预警模 型的有效性，为房地产行业的财务风险管理提供一定的参考。 关键词：财务预警；财务指标；非财务指标；BP 神经网络分析法 Abstract After China entering the WTO in 2001, the economic developed at a high-speed, the growth rate of which reached as high as 8%.The high speed development of economy promoted many other industries. However, the high speed development of economy brought high inflation, as a result of which, the investors invested their money in fixed assets. The fixed assets investment of the whole society is also at a high-growth level and the fixed asset investment are almost composed of the real estate industry. The expanding demand to real estate product caused a real estate boom. But the real estate industry is long-period, and its capital realizable ability is not good, which make the industry risky. Therefore, to construct a financial warning system is imminent for the real estate industry. Basing on reviewing the former research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and evaluates the va