中国城住房保障覆盖范围算法设计与应用.PDF

第 33 卷第 1 期 系统工程理论与实践 Vol.33, No.1 2013 年 1 月 Systems Engineering — Theory Practice Jan., 2013 文章编号: 1000-6788(2013)01-0001-11 中图分类号: XXX 文献标志码: A 中国城市住房保障覆盖范围的算法设计与应用 郑思齐孙伟增徐杨菲 (清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心, 清华大学建设管理系, 北京市海淀区 100084) 摘 要 本文借鉴工程学和统计学领域构造双变量联合分布函数的方法 首先利用家庭收入和 人均住房面积的分组数据分别对中国城镇家庭收入和人均住房面积的分布函数进行估计 然 后利用相关系数法构造了家庭收入和人均住房面积的二维联合分布函数 并依此讨论 了我国保障性住房体系中准入标准和保障范围之间的关系 对比分析了保障性住房供需端的 匹配情况 整体来看 地方现行的保障房申请条件能够覆盖 的城市家庭 且各城市间 存在较大差异 将这一保障范围与国家十二五期间万套保障房建设任务的分配进行对 照 可以计算出大地区中代表性城市的保障性住房的供需比在之间变动 存在较为显 著的供需不匹配现象 本文在最后还提出了保障范围无差异曲线 的分析工具本文的测算方 法和分析工具可以为相关政策进一步细化提供决策支持 关键词 住房保障 覆盖范围 准入条件 联合分布 This paper estimates the distribution functions of household income and living space per capita in Chinese cities, based on the statistic data of these two variableswhich are presented in groups. Then we combine the two distribution functions into a joint distribution function of “income-living space” for urban households using the Pearson correlation coefficient method. Based on this estimated joint distribution function, we present the relationship between the share of households that should be covered by public housing policy (“household coverage ratio”) and the eligibility requirement in 20 cities,and also compare the size of this share(demand-side) with the share of public housing supply specified in the 12th “Five-Year Plan”. The results show that, given the current eligibility requirements in those cities, the share of low- income households that need public housing in a cityvaries between 12% and 32%, and th