铜铝需求S形规律的三个转变点剖析-地球学报.PDF

Vol.31 No.5 : 659-665 Acta Geoscientica Sinica Oct. 2010: 659-665 www.地球学报.com S 1, 2) 2) 2) , , 1)(), 100083; 2), 100037 摘 要: S; , , , , 2020 ,, 1 关键词: ; ; ; 中图分类号: F123.2; F201 文献标志码: A 文章编号: 1006-3021(2010)05-659-07 An Analysis of the Three Turning Points in the “S-shape” Rule of Copper and Aluminum Demand CHEN Qi-shen1, 2), WANG Gao-shang2) , WANG An-jian2) 1) China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083; 2) Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, CAGS, Beijing 100037 S Abstract: This paper analyzes three key transition points for the copper and aluminum per capita consumption S-shape track. It figures out theoretically the time when those three transition points appear for aluminum and also G points out that that it shares the same period with aluminum for copper per capita consumption to show the transi- tion points, aluminum comes slightly earlier than copper. Base on this provision, the paper analyzes the copper and aluminum demand tendency in the future for our country and concluded that the demand for copper and aluminum A demand will be on the summit around 2020, which will be double by then. Key words: copper; aluminum; demand summit; turning point C ,