供水管网地震漏损蒙特卡洛模拟剖析.docVIP

供水管网地震漏损蒙特卡洛模拟剖析 　　摘要：?檠芯抗┧?管网在不同地震烈度下的漏损情况和水力特性，基于管道地震破坏评估模型和概率分析方法，对不同地震烈度下管线的破坏概率和渗漏状态进行了计算分析，引入折减系数对管段抗震可靠度分析方法进行改进并与传统计算方法比较，验证了其合理性。发展了Monte Carlo模拟技术在供水管网流分析方面的应用，并考虑带渗漏和爆管两种出流方式。编制程序对一大型管网进行了模拟分析，给出了震后带漏损情况下管网的漏失率和破坏情况，结果与实际地震灾害情况相符。 　　关键词：供水管网；地震破坏；漏损；蒙特卡洛模拟；水力模拟 　　中图分类号：TU991.33；P315.9 文献标志码：A文章编号2018 　　收稿日期 　　基金项目：中国地震局工程力学研究所中央级公益性研究所基本科研业务费专项（2014A01）；“十二五”国家科技支撑计划（2015BAK17B05）；中国地震局创新团队发展计划 　　作者简介：邹日青（1991），男，主要从事生命线工程抗震研究，Email：zou372484675@163.com。 　　郭恩栋（通信作者），男，研究员，博士生导师，Email： iemged@263.net。 　　Received 　　Foundation item： Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research Expenses of Institute of Engineering Mechanics， China Earthquake Administration（No.2014A01）； National SciTech Support Plan（No.2015BAK17B05）；Innovation Team Development Plan of China Earthquake Administration 　　Author brief：Zou Riqing （1991）， main research interest：being engaged in seismic research on lifeline engineering，Email：zou372484675@163.com. 　　Guo Endong（correspondent author），professor， doctoral supervisor， Email： iemged@263.net.Earthquake leakage analysis of the water supply pipeline 　　network based on monte carlo simulation 　　Zou Riqing，Guo Endong，Yu Tianyang，Li Qian，Li Hongxu 　　（Institute of Engineering Mechanics； Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration， 　　China Earthquake Administration， Harbin 150080，P.R.China） 　　Abstract：The damage probability and the leakage level of pipelines in different earthquake intensity were calculated according to earthquake damage evaluation model and probability theory for the reason of studying the leakage and hydraulic characteristics of water supply network in ground motion. The reduction coefficient was introduced to improve the seismic reliability analysis of the pipe section， by means of comparing with the traditional calculation method， the rationality was verified. Monte Carlo simulation technology application in the service of water supply network was develop