南投仁爱乡崩塌特性分析及崩塌风险模式建构-中华水土保持学会.PDFVIP

154 中華水土保持學報, 49(3): 154-166 (2018) Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 49 (3): 154-166 (2018) DOI: 10.29417/JCSWC.201809_49(3).0003 南投縣仁愛鄉崩塌特性分析及崩塌風險模式建構 [1] [1] [2] 吳俊鋐 黃均臺 吳亭燁 * 摘 要 本研究以南投縣仁愛鄉在 2009 年莫拉克颱風後崩塌目錄，建構仁愛鄉內之崩塌潛勢評估模式及 風險模式。仁愛鄉在 2009 年莫拉克颱風後之崩塌案例，有 57.0%位於下邊坡及 20.5%位於上邊坡，且崩塌規 模以小規模崩塌為主。崩塌潛勢評估模式建構分別以邏輯式迴歸法及證據權重法進行，兩種方法之正確率分 別為 74.47%及 61.92% ，因此選定邏輯式迴歸法建構之崩塌潛勢評估模式，經現場比對後，該模式能預測出多 數淺層崩塌，但難以適用於地下水誘發的地滑型崩塌。最後將崩塌潛勢結果結合研究區域內之建物與道路成 本，套疊不同頻率年 24 小時累積降雨，獲得仁愛鄉在 50 年、100 年及 200 年 24 小時累積降雨事件下，可能 產生的損失風險值分別為 11.8 億、24.0 億及 38.7 億元。 關鍵字：崩塌特性、崩塌潛勢模式、崩塌風險模式、崩塌重現機率 Analysis of the Landslide Characteristic and Building the Landslide Risk Model for Renai Township, Nantou Chun-Hung Wu[1] Jun-Tai Hunag[1] Tingyeh Wu[2]* ABSTRACT The study developed landslide susceptibility and risk models based on landslide inventory collected after 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Renai Twonship, Nantou County. Approximately 57.0% of landslide cases induced by Typhoon Morakot in Renai Township were located in downslope locations, whereas 20.5% were located in upslope locations. The study created landslide susceptibility models by using logistic regression and the weight of evidence method. The accuracy of these two landslide models were 74.47% and 61.92%, respectively. The logistic regression– based landslide susceptibility model can predict most shallow landslide cases; however, it cannot predict groundwate