南极涛动与江淮梅雨异常的时滞相关分析TimeLag-大气科学学报.PDFVIP

29 3 Vo.l 29 N o. 3 2006 6 Journal ofN anjing Institute ofM eteorology Jun. 2006 : 2006) 0303480 鲍学俊, 王盘兴, 覃 军 ( , 210044) : 利用 NCEP /NCAR 再分析资料和中国 160站月降水资料, 分析了 4 月南极涛动(AAO) 的变化对后期中国东部夏季降水的影响 果表明: 年际时间尺度上, 4 月平均的AAO指数与 6 7月长江流域降水的相关系数为 031, 达到 9 % 的置信水平前期 AAO偏强时, 后期 6 7月 长江流域降水将增加, 反之亦然前期 AAO 的变化通过影响后期夏季西北太平洋副高的强度和位 置, 引起中国夏季风雨带位置的南北偏差 : 南极涛动; 中国夏季降水; 年际变化 : P4266 : A Time Lag Correlation Analyses of Antarctic Oscillations and JianghuaiM eiyu Anomaly BAO Xuejun, WANG Panxing, Q IN Jun ( Departm ent ofA tm ospheric Sciences, NU IST, Nanj ing 210044, China) Abstract: U sing theNCEP /NCAR reanalyzing data and themonthly rainfall data at 160 stations in China from 19 8 to 2000, this paper analyzes the influence of the variation ofAAO inApril andM ay on summer precip itation in the east of Ch ina. The results are as follow ing: the correlation coefficient, on interannual scale, betw een averaged AAO index over AprilM ay and JuneJuly rainfall in the Yangtze R iver is 031, w hich is sign ificant at the 9 % confidence level. When the AprilM ay AAO is stronger, the subsequent JuneJuly precipitation in the Yangtze R iver w ill increases, and v. v. . The change of AAO in April and M ay w ill mi pact the JuneJuly intensity and position of the northw est Pacific subtrop ical high, thus affect ing the southnorth position of the summermonsoon rainbelt in China. K ey words: Antarctic oscillation; summer precip itation in China; interannual variation , , , [ 12] ,