基于云模型的电力系统负荷组合预测①.PDFVIP

2016 年 第 25 卷 第 5 期 计 算 机 系 统 应 用 基于云模型的电力系统负荷组合预测① 王惠中, 刘 轲, 杨世亮 (兰州理工大学 电气工程与信息工程学院, 兰州 730050) (甘肃省工业过程先进控制重点实验室, 兰州 730050) 摘 要: 电力系统负荷预测的精确度决定着电网安全稳定、高效的运行. 最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)被广泛应 用电力系统负荷预测上, 然而该方法在处理不确定性问题上有很多不足之处. 为了更精确的选择核函数的参数, 处理不确定性因素, 提高短期负荷预测的精度, 提出了一种将云模型、粒子群优化(PSO)和 LSSVM 相结合的组合 模型. 首先通过对各影响因子的不确定性分析, 按不确定性高低将各影响因子分别应用 Cloud-LSSVM 和 PSO-LSSVM 进行预测, 然后通过组合模型的加权计算的得到最终预测值. 最后, 通过仿真对比证明该模型能更 好的处理不确定性, 从而提高电力系统短期负荷预测精度. 关键词: 云模型; 不确定性; 最小二乘支持向量机; 负荷预测 Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Cloud Model SVM WANG Hui-Zhong, LIU Ke, YANG Shi-Liang (Electrical Engineering and Information Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China) (Advanced Control Laboratory of Gansu Province Industrial Processes, Lanzhou 730050, China) Abstract: The accuracy of load forecasting of power system is the guarantee of the safe, stable and efficient operation of the power grids. Least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is widely used on the load forecasting of power system, but this method has many shortcomings in dealing with uncertainty problems. In order to improve the accuracy of selecting the parameters of the kernel function, to deal with uncertainty factors and improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting, this paper proposes a new model which is combined by the cloud model, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and LSSVM. First of all, through analyzing uncertainty of each influence factor, it uses the models of Cloud-LSSVM and PSO-LSSVM separately to predict the impact factor according to the uncertainty, then it achieves the final forecast through the weighted combination model. At last, the simulation of experiment proves that the new model can achieve better load forecast o