博士论文答辩-IPPC.PPT

Risk Assessment in China assisted by GIS Xu Yan Institute of Animal and Plant Quarantine, Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine, AQSIQ, China Xu Rumei College of Biological Science, Beijing Normal University, China October 24-28, 2005, Niagara Falls, Canada Outlines Introduction Methods and Data Preparation Results and Analysis Applications and Future This study is supported by: State Key Basic Research and Development Plan (973 project) : The ecological impact of biologicalinvasion and eco-safety, 2000-2005, (G2000046803) AQSIQ Scientific and Research Project: Study on phytosanitary policy making assisted by geographic information system Importance of using GIS China has a large area and several climatic zones, GIS can play an important role in suitability analysis and endangered areas Most demanding Applied widely Provide scientific support for national policy making 2 Methods and Data Preparation Software Attribute Databases GIS Map Databases Data transfer between CLIMEX and GIS Software CLIMEX for Windows Version 1.1b GIS ArcInfo Version 8.0.1 ArcView GIS 3.2 with Spatial Analysis MapInfo Professional Version 6.0 Database Microsoft Access 2000 Microsoft Excel 2000 Attribute Database Pest Data Intercepted Data Climatic data Crop Data Custom Data Climatic data 1980-1998 daily climatic data 4247570 records 1950-1980 yearly average data CRU 0.5 X 0.5 grid data (http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/) 3 Results and Analysis Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) Pine wood nematode Bemisia tabaci Biotype B Bactrocera tryoni Popillia japonica Epiphyas postvittana Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Thrips palmi Bactrocera dorsalis Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) 4 Models of Greenhouse effect in CLIMEX: 05,1,2,01 with increasingly greenhouse effect，the percentage of the suitable area for Medfly to total area of China are 26.8%、28.9％、30.4％、33.7％、38.1％. Its north limits of suitable area will go further north with the development of greenhouse. Using GIS to analyzing the suitabi