纺织业出口退税调整的有效性研究-国际贸易学专业论文.docx

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 摘要 由于企业原材料成本、能源成本、劳动力成本上升，人民币汇率的不断走高以及 2008 年国 际金融危机的冲击，关乎国内民生、具有传统优势的中国支柱产业之一的纺织业受到了很大影 响，大量纺织品滞销、大批纺企倒闭。为了改变这种局面，国家从 2008 年 8 月连续四次提高纺 织业出口退税率并在 2009 年 4 月全文公布了《纺织工业调整与振兴规划》。国家的出口退税政 策是否达到了预期的效果？这样一个出口退税率的调整到底能不能对全球金融危机引发的外部 需求的下降起到抑制作用？出口退税率的作用到底有多大？ 文章在总结现有国内外文献的基础上，结合我国纺织业出口退税调整的实际，将纺织业出 口退税区间分成上调和下调区间。先对纺织业出口退税调整的有效性进行理论分析，再运用 ARIMA(p，d，q)模型和事件分析法从出口额、就业人数两个角度对纺织业出口退税率上调的效 应进行评估，并从汇率、纺织业结构、出口额三个角度对纺织业出口退税下调的效应进行检验。 结果表明：纺织业出口退税上调效应不明显，而纺织业出口退税下调效应显著，解决纺织业出 口退税上调失效的方法陷入困境，维持纺织业出口退税下调效应的几种方法都行之有效。论文 的最后基于理论和实证分析的结论给出了四个政策建议：谨慎选择上调纺织业出口退税率；纺 织业出口退税率长期趋势应该是稳中向下；促使企业实施出口多元化战略，提高纺织业在全球 价值链中的地位；开拓内需，扩大农村市场对纺织业的需求。 关键词：纺织业，出口退税，有效性，事件分析法，ARIMA(p，d，q)模型 I 纺织业出口退税调整的有效性研究 纺织业出口退税调整的有效性研究 Abstract Because of the rising cost of raw materials, energy, labor costs and the rising exchange rate of RMB, also the 2008 international financial crisis, one of the Chinese traditional pillar industries -textile which concerns the people’s living has been affected significantly. Large amount of textile can not be sold and many textile companies collapse. In order to change this situation, Chinese government raised the export tax rebate of textile industry four consecutive times from August 2008 and announced the textile industrial readjustment and revitalization plan in April 2009. So whether the nations export tax rebate policy can achieve the desired effect? Whether such a policy can inhibit the global financial crisis caused by drops of external demand? What effect can such macro-control policies play? Based on the summary of the existing domestic and foreign literatures and our textile industry export tax rebate adjustment facts, we divide the periods of textile tax rebate into two intervals – ups and downs. Fisrstly, we anlyze the theoretical validity of the adjustment of textile tax rebate and then use event analysis and ARIMA(p，d，q) model to evaluate up intervals from exports of textiles, employment and down intervals from exchange rate, the texti