大城市大型社会活动交通影响分析研究-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docx

摘要 随着我国经济的持续快速发展，人民物质文化需求日益增伏，城市中明星演 唱会这样的大型社会活动举办越来越频繁，这些活动在丰富了人们物质文化生活 带来巨大经济、社会效益的同时，也诱发了交通拥堵、事故等问题。如何对这类 活动所产生的交通影响进行分析，进而采取相应的对策来避免交通拥堵等严重后 果，是活动组织者与交通管理者最为关心的问题之一，因此，对大城市大型社会 活动交通影响分析进行研究非常必要。 本文从大型社会活动的交通特性出发，借鉴建设项目交通影响分析的方法和 流程，对大型社会活动交通影响分析的相关内容和方法做了研究和探讨。论文首 先四顾了国内外相关研究，对大型社会活动的交通特性以及活动参与人员构成进 行了仔细分析，再分别针对本地观众和非本地观众出行、分布特点改进和建立了 各自的交通分布预测模型，并对大型社会活动交通方式划分及交通分配方法进行 了探讨。然后，参照建设项目交通影响分析的相关内容，对大型社会活动交通影 响分析阙值、影响范围的确定以及对周边交通设施影响的具体分析方法等内容做 了深入探讨，并认真总结了国内外大型社会活功交通组织管理经验，阐述了大型 社会活动相关交通问题的应对策略。 最后，以某明星演唱会为研究对象，运用本文提巾的方法和模型进行了初步 验证，未来城市中举行同类型的大型社会活动时，可为交通管理者提供参考和决 策依据，具有一定的参考价值和指导意义. 关键询:大型社会活动:交通需求预测:交通影响分析:交通应对策略 ABSTRACT Wi由the continuous development of economy of ourωm町，严oples material and cultural needs growing quickly tl∞.More and more largescale social events held in our ci阳 suchω 阳rωn阳臼.Th伽 even臼 were enriched peoples material and cultura1 n时s produced 位emendous economic and social profits，部wel1 broughtωme 即rious problems such 邸 traffic jams and accidents. How ωanalyu 由.e traffic impact ofeventsωavoid traffic jams is one problem of mostωnωm for organisers and traffic managers. It is very neωssaryωresearch on traffic impact analysis of largescale social events for the large city. The related me也ods and contents of traffic imp即t 缸:talysis of large-scale social events were studied and discussed 怕也is thesis thoughωnsul臼d construction projωt traffic impact analysis methods and process b础。d on 也.e traffic characteristics of large-scale social events Firstly，the global study were reviewed.Traffic characteristics and participant ∞mponents of large响ale social events were analy艺创， then distribution models were improved and e矶山lished in 也is thesis ac∞时ingω 也e travel and dis位ibution characteristics of local audience and non-local audienω.ηle 位硝ic mode 叩lit and assi伊ment of large-scale social even也 were discussed 扭曲扭曲esis tl∞.Then the detennining methods of threshold， impact zone and 白e specific analysis me也.ods of traffic facilities impact were discussed deeply. The