供应链环境下企业风险传播仿真研究-企业管理专业论文.docx

华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 I I 摘 要 供应链环境下企业组成的网络在运作过程中，个别节点企业由于自身管理不善 或是外部环境恶化等原因出现风险后不仅会对其自身正常运营造成影响，还可能借 助企业间的关系网将风险传播至其他企业，甚至导致整个网络崩溃，进而在一定程 度上影响经济、社会的和谐发展。因此，对供应链环境下企业风险传播的研究成为 了一个亟待解决的问题。 本文以复杂网络理论为基础，将供应链环境下企业组成的网络及其主体行为结 合起来，仿真企业风险传播过程。通过查阅文献，归纳出供应链环境下企业风险传 播的研究现状；分析企业风险基本构成要素和传播模式，研究它的传播过程；构建 了基于风险的供应链复杂网络模型，并提出相应的网络统计特性；在模型的基础上 运用Matlab软件编程实现仿真网络中单个企业突发风险、多个企业同时发生风险和 预警机制下单个企业突发风险三种情况下企业风险的传播过程及其统计特性变化， 分析供应链中的企业风险传播的宏观演化规律；结合仿真结果提出防范与控制措 施；最后，对本文研究内容及未来发展趋势进行总结与展望。 本文基于复杂网络模型探讨供应链环境下企业风险传播的宏观演化规律，对人 们掌握供应链环境下企业组成的网络功能特点及其风险传播动力学机制有着极其 重要的作用。该文不仅具有重要的理论意义，而且具有潜在的应用价值。 关键词：供应链；复杂网络；风险传播；仿真模拟 II II Abstract While the network that companies in the supply chain operates, some nodes enterprise will risk because of poor self-management or external. It will not only affect its normal operation, but also may spread the risk to other enterprises along the relationships network. And even lead to the entire network collapse, thereby affecting the harmonious development of economy and society to a certain extent. Therefore, the study of enterprise risk transmission has become a serious problem. This paper combines complex network structure and behavior of the main companies to simulate the risk transmission process under the condition of supply chain based on the theory of complex networks. Sort out the literature to summarize research status. Analyze the basic elements, transmission patterns to put foward prevention and control measures. Construct the complex supply chain network model based on risk and put forward the suitable characteristics for the supply chain network. Use the Matlab software programming to realize to simulate and analyze the statistical properties change, the risk affecting of enterprise in the network and the evolution of whole network risk in three cases of the individual enterprise risks suddenly, several companies risk at the same time and the individual enterprise risks suddenly with warning strategy. Combine with the simulation results to pu