分布式陆气耦合模型在洪水预报中的应用研究-水文学及水资源专业论文.docx

华中科技大学硕士学位论文 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract As more and more reservoirs have been built and operated on the upper reach of Yangtze river，the joint operation of cascade reservoirs has been formed. However, the operation of the upstream reservoirs not only increases the difficulty in the inflow forecasting of reservoirs on the downstream，such as Three Gorges Reservoir, but also cut down the flood leadtime. While, the predicted period of traditional short-term rainfall- runoff forecasting model is limited, the forecatsing accuracy of long-term runoff forecasting model which is based on mathematical statistic method is low. As the guiding reservoir operation and management work, it is urgent to carry out the new flood forecasting method.To get high quality and short-term in-reservoir flow prediction of Three Gorges Project (TGP), the TGP reservoir area is chosen as the research area. From the perspective of weather-hydrological coupling forecast, the high resolution numerical atmospheric WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model was oneway coupled to the VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity) model after temporal and spatial scale transformation, and the WRF/VIC oneway coupling model was established and applied in the WRF/VIC Coupling Forecast System of the Three Gorges Project. The main results are as follows: The distributed hydrological model was established in the three gorges reservoir area. Based on the VIC grid model, taking the advantage of ArcGIS software to analyse the digital elevation (DEM), land use type, soil classification of remote sensing data, the vegetation, soil and flow of the parameter file ware made. The grid and daily distributed hydrological model was established as the land surface process model of land-air coupling system, providinga hydrological process simulation. And according to the three gorges reservoir hydrologic meteorological observation data, the parameters of VIC model were calibrated and the