河北省人口结构变动及其对消费水平的影响分析统计学专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 摘 要 2010 年进行的第六次人口普查为分析河北省目前的人口状况提供了大量数据，结合 以往人口普查资料，本文分析了河北省人口在年龄结构、性别结构、城乡结构、家庭规 模结构以及人口素质结构等 5 个方面的变化，揭示了一定的人口结构变动的趋势和规律。 消费是拉动经济的三驾马车之一，然而，通过分析发现，河北省的消费对经济的拉动作 用与投资相比较弱，对经济增长的贡献率较小；最终消费占支出法核算的地区生产总值 的比重，即消费率连年下降；居民消费倾向呈下降或持平态势。在影响国内消费需求的 因素中，人口因素一直是一个被忽略的因素，而经济不发达与快速的老龄化是未来很长 一段时期我省乃至全国将要面临的一个主要矛盾。为此，文章专门分析了人口老龄化对 消费水平的影响,使用经典的莫迪里安尼的生命周期假说的消费函数对储蓄率偏高进行 了解释，建立了消费率与人均收入水平和老年抚养比的对数模型，发现老年抚养比在老 龄化的初期阶段对消费率提高有正向作用，只是作用较小，系数仅为 0.3763。为此，应 把消费率低归结为其他原因。文章同时提出了未来高度老龄化社会对消费的间接影响， 既包括消极影响又包括积极影响，提出充分挖掘老年市场的合理化建议。 最后，总结全文，指出现阶段消费率过低主要原因在于经济的不发达，收入分配制 度不完善等原因，对此提出了提高消费率的政策建议；并提出应对高度老龄化社会的政 策建议：适当逐步放开计划生育政策；鼓励农村剩余劳动力转移和推迟退休年龄等。 关键词 消费水平 人口结构 人口老龄化 生命周期假说 II II Abstract Abstract The 6th population census in 2010 provided a large number of data to analyze the demographic situation in Hebei province. Combining historical population census data, this dissertation analyzes the changes in age structure, sex structure, level of urbanization, family size and quality of population, revealing some tendencies and regularities in demographic structure changes. Consumption is one of the three horses pulling the economy. However, we found that by analyzing data, the role of consumption in fueling economic development is smaller than investment, and the effects in stimulating the economy is weaker. And the final consumption expenditure rate declined in successive years. Propensity to consumption declined or remain unchanged. Among the factors which influence the consumption, population factor was always ignored. But in a long period in the future, the developing economy and the aging population is a big contradiction. Hence, this dissertation analyzes the effects of aging population on consumption in particular. In Chapter 4, the reason why Chinese’saving rate has been so high is explained by the consumption function of LCH which was founded by F.M.Modiliani. Then, an logarithm model is founded to explore the relationship between consumption rate and old-age dependency rate. By thi