基于灰色加权马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c交通事故预测.PDFVIP

Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 2012 ，48 （31） 11 基于灰色加权马尔可夫SCGM（1 ，1）c 的交通事故预测 1，2 1 赵 玲 ，许宏科 ZHAO Ling1，2 ，XU Hongke1 1.长安大学 电子与控制工程学院，西安 710064 2.西安邮电大学 通信与信息工程学院，西安 710121 1.School of Electronic and Control Engineering, Chang ’an University, Xi ’an 710064, China 2.School of Communication and Information Engineering, Xi ’an University of Posts and Telecommunications, Xi ’an 710121, China ZHAO Ling ，XU Hongke. Traffic accident prediction based on gray weighted Markov SCGM （1 ，1）c. Com- puter Engineering and Applications, 2012, 48 （31 ）：11-15. Abstract ：The prediction of traffic accident is the basis of transportation safety assessment, planning and deci- sion-making. According to grey system theory and Markov chain principle, applying a single factor system cloud grey SCGM （1，1）c model to fit the tendency of the road traffic time series, its fitting index is random fluctuation. Markov chain method is suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process, selecting weight Markov chain to predict the fitting index. Combining the advantages of two models, found a weighted SCGM （1，1）c model for road traffic accident frequency prediction, the new model is suitable for forecasting such kinds of system with short time, few data and not too large random fluctuation. Finally, the new model is applied to predict the traffic acci- dent times of Beijing from 1975 to 2010. The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the traffic accident time but also overcomes the random fluctuation data of affecting precision accuracy, having a strong engineering applicability. Key words ：transportation security; traffic accident prediction; SCGM （1，1）c; weighted Markov chain; random fluctuation 摘 要：交通事故预测是交通安全评价、规划和决策的基础。基于灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论，应用系统 云灰色模型SCGM （1，1）c 拟合道路交通时序数据的总体趋势，所得拟合指标是随机波动的。马尔可夫链原理 适合处理波动性大的系统过程，因此选用能更好解决随机波动性的加权马尔可夫链预测方法，提出一