基于VAR模型的中国经济发展与税收的动态关系研究-数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 随着经济水平的不断提升，经济状况逐渐由“量”的增加向“质”的飞跃 转变。经济可持续发展离不开税收政策的支持，政府可以通过税收政策调节经 济发展。税收乘数理论阐释税收的增长引起经济反向增长规律，因而，研究经 济发展与税收的关系，把握两者的联动关系，为实现经济发展提供有力的税收 政策建议。 本文从税收负担和税收结构的角度，分析分税制后经济发展与税收的关系。 基于卡斯.库普曼模型和巴罗模型分别研究经济发展与税收的静态关系，得出税 收负担对经济发展呈现反向作用，税收结构中流转税与所得税对绿色 GDP 作用 机制相反。通过对绿色 GDP、税收负担及主体税收数据的平稳性检验，协整分 析数据间的长期均衡关系；用格兰杰因果检验绿色 GDP、主体税收与税收负担 间因果关系，并建立 VAR 模型分析经济发展与税收负担、经济发展与主体税收 的动态关系。最后，提出适应经济发展的税收可持续政策。 关键词：税收负担；经济发展；绿色 GDP；税收结构 I ABSTRACT With the development of the economy, economic situation has already transferred from “quantity” to “qualitative”. As sustainable economic development cannot run without the tax policy, the government can regulate the tax policy to adjust the economy. Tax multiplier theory can explain the reverse law between tax and economic development. Therefore, we can research the relationship between economic development and tax, and grasp the linkage relationship, then provide strong policy recommendations for the realization of economic development. From the view of the tax burden and tax structure,the article analyzes the dynamic analysis of the relationship between economic development and tax.Based on the Cass-koopmans model and Barro model,we can research the static relationship between economic development and tax ,the tax burden has negative effect on the development of the economy.The circulation tax and income tax has negative effect mechanism on green GDP .We carry out the stationary test to analyze the cointergration of tax burden, GGDP and the tax structure,so we can research the long-term equilibrium.And we use Granger causality test to test the relationships of tax burden、GGDP and tax structure，we establish the dynamic relationship of economic development 、tax burden and tax structure.In all, we put forward the sustainable tax policies to adapt to the economic development. Key Words: Tax burden Economic growth GGDP Tax structure II 目 录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 第 1 章 绪论 ..............................................................