农业机械私人投资的影响因素基于省级层面数据的探讨.docxVIP

2007.9 一、导言 2003 96.15% 2003 98.6% 29.4% 65.97% 80% 90% 90% 30 Buchanan 1965 *2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 - 25 - 1986 1995 2004 二、中国农业机械私人投资现状 1985 1985 1985 17.1 1998 9.1 1985 553.3 2003 3054.6 1990 5.10% 1999 3.60% 1.5199019.95%19999.57%10 199074.94%199986.83% 122003 96.15% 1 1 表1 历年不同主体农业机械投资比重情况 单位：% 1990 5.10 19.95 74.95 0.00 1995 3.97 15.05 80.98 0.00 1996 4.00 13.40 82.60 0.00 1997 3.90 12.02 84.08 0.00 1998 3.99 10.81 85.20 0.00 1999 3.60 9.57 86.83 0.00 2000 2.90 3.52 93.03 0.55 26 1 2001 2.01 3.36 94.07 0.56 2002 1.72 1.68 96.09 0.51 2003 1.85 1.55 96.15 0.45 2000 “ ” 2000 2000 2000 1 2000 1990 36.57 / 74.43 / 2.04 14.90 / 40.74% 59.53 / 5 2003 10.89 / 28.46 / 2.61 1.90 / 17.43% 26.56 /14.99 12 1 1990 29 29 27 2 2003 2000 21990 2003 1990 1999 0.40 0.56 2000 2003 0.60 0.75 2 1990 1999 2000 2003 / / / 1990 38.24 74.43 14.9 15.48 0.4047 1991 41.94 92.31 3.08 19.99 0.4765 1992 48.31 135.57 17.59 24.57 0.5086 1993 53.08 123.17 18.37 26.48 0.4988 1994 60.34 136.33 18.47 31.21 0.5172 1995 70.76 140.01 24.05 33.88 0.4788 1996 61.22 130.42 17.69 31.92 0.5214 1997 71.70 182.81 19.94 39.96 0.5574 1998 77.62 185.01 21.44 42.06 0.5419 1999 87.51 202.65 25.8 47.10 0.5382 2000 9.65 24.02 1.44 5.83 0.6037 2001 9.27 31.63 1.42 6.66 0.7185 2002 10.10 23.12 1.86 5.69 0.5634 2003 11.08 28.46 1.90 7.05 0.6363 2000 2000 1 28 三、农业机械私人投资影响因素的实证分析 1. 1 2 3 4 5 2. 29 3 3 PI % x1 / + x2 % + x3 + x4 + x5 / - PI it =αi +β1 Ln(x 1,it )+β2 x 2,it +β3 Ln(x 3,it )+β4 Ln(x 4,it )+β5 Ln(x 5,it )+uit 1 1 t t=1 2 3 n i i =1 2 N uit β1 β2 β5 3 PI PI = ×[ - - ] 1990 27 1997 4 2003 2.2% 1.7% 1996 30 2000 2004 2000 2003 4 4 PI 0.73 0.15 0.24 0.94 x1 2.17 2.02 0.65 9.43 x2 0.33 0.09 0.16 0.56 x3 74.56 51.84 14.15 302.68 x4 1420.21 623.21 722.53 3430.86 x5 0.27 0.17 0.06 0.81 5 5 1% 5% 5 t Ln x1 0.0635 *** 2.6850 x2 0.1309 ** 2.3052 Ln x3 -0.0544 *** -14.7875 Ln x4 0.1682 *** 6.2683 Ln x5 -0.0132 -1.0967 R2 0.99 F 34097.40 DW 1.94 *** ** 1% 5% cross-section weights White h