气候变化对中国区域梨产量的影响-湖南农业大学学报.PDF

( ) 2014 8 15 4 Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Sciences), Aug. 2014, 15(4):35–40 DOI: 10.13331/ki.jhau(ss).2014.04.006 气候变化对中国区域梨产量的影响 ——基于 28 省市区 1990—2010 年的数据 卢华，耿献辉 ( 210095) 摘 要28 关 键 词 中图分类号F062.2 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1009-2013(2014)04-0035-06   Impact of climate change on Chinese pear production: Based on the data of 28 provinces and municipalities in 1990–2010 LU HuaGENG Xian-hui (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China) Abstract: Basing on the panel data of pear planted area in 28 provinces and municipalities in the year of 1990-2010, combining the climate factors with the socio-economic factors, using economic model, this paper measures the effect of temperature, rainfall and sunshine on the pear production in Bohai Bay region, the Yangtze River Yunnan and Guizhou region and Northwest China. Studies show that the impact of climate on pear production is significantly different at different region. Temperature increase generally has a positive effect on the pear production in Bohai region and Northwest China, while a negative impact on that of the Yangtze River region; th