基于cge模型的中国能源环境政策影响研究-工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

可以设置在2．48％．3．68％之间，以平衡经济增长和减排目标实现之间的关 可以设置在2．48％．3．68％之间，以平衡经济增长和减排目标实现之间的关 系；③碳交易机制中的各项政策应该谨慎设置以保证机制的合理性和有效 性。建议政府在改革初期可以采用更高比例的免费配额、基于产量分配的 基于排放量分配的祖父法则、设置较低的惩罚率及采取必要的补贴措施， 以减轻其对经济的负面冲击；在改革后期则可以根据目标对这些政策进行 相应调整。 关键词：可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，煤炭资源税改革，碳交易机制， 能源结构，碳减排 万方数据 IMPACTS IMPACTS OF ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICIES ON CHINA BASED ON A DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL ABSTRACT To solve the double challenges of energy shortage and environment pollution，the Chinese government has proposed a series of energy and environment policies．Amongst them，coal resource tax reform and carbon emissions trading scheme(ETS)have aroused a wild interest．This paper builds a multi—sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model． By introducing resource tax module and ETS module into the proposed model， we explore the economic and environmental impacts of the two policies on China and make some policy implications to government． Coal resource tax reform has been raised by the government in 2014． By introducing a novel resource tax module into typical CGE model，we describe the collection method and tax rate of the resource tax policy in detail． As for the coal resource tax reform from quantity—based collection to ad 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 北京化工大学硕士学位论文valorem 北京化工大学硕士学位论文 valorem collection：(1)The reform policy would have a negative effect on the Chinese economy,and such effect would increase with a higher tax rate but decrease gradually as the time goes．(2)The energy structure would be improved by the reform policy,with a sharp decrease in coal consumption but increases in the consumptions of cleaner energy forms．(3)The total emissions of C02 and other air pollutants would be significantly mitigated，which can effectively improve China’S environment． A nationwide ETS will be constructed in 2016．By building an ETS—based CGE model，this paper carefully describes the different policy designs in ETS．Based on the simulation results，some conclusions could be found：(1)The ETS policy app