在死亡的SMART与诞生GRAPA.docVIP

在死亡的SMART與誕生 GRAPA Should SMART be dead—as Edwards and Barron affirmed in1994? This article is a comparative study of the methods SMART and SMARTS, in relation to the eliciting of weights. It compares the weights and final rankings of alternatives. To these two techniques has been added a graphical version of the PA (GRAPA),which is simpler and more intuitive. My study is designed toorient nonprofessional ecision-makers with regard to which technique to employ, when what is sought is simplicity and ease of use without loss of rigor. 應該是死的SMART作為愛德華茲和巴倫肯定1994年？本文是一個比較研究的方法的SMART和智慧，在徵求有關的權重。它比較權重的選擇和最後的排名。這兩項技術已被添加一個圖形版本的PA（GRAPA）這更簡單，更直觀。我的研究目的是東方外行決策者對於這聘請技術，所尋求的是什麼時，簡單易用使用無損失的嚴密性。 This paper is about techniques for judgmentally assessing weights for additive multiattribute utility (MAU) models. (I use MAU to refer to what the literature calls Multiattribute Value as well as Multiattribute Utility models.) 本文是關於技術 判斷評估權重添加劑多屬性效用（MAU）模型。 （我用MAU指什麼文獻稱為多屬性的價值，以及多屬性效用模型。） Prior Requirements for Using Additive MAUs 在此之前使用要求添加劑MAUs A number of prior requirements must have been met before such techniques can be useful in a decision-making process: 一個數字，事先要求必須得到滿足之前，這種技術可以是有用的決策過程： 1. A decision problem must have been defined. That is, a person or organization must be facing a choice of exactly one of a specified set of options. For each option, it must either be the case that with certainty that option, if chosen, will lead to a clear and explicit set of consequences which may be considered to be its ultimate outcome, or else each option may interact with circumstances not under the decision maker’s control to lead to exactly one of a set of outcomes, any one of which may be the ultimate outcome of that option. The literature calls the first of these two cases decision making under certainty and the second decision making under uncertainty. Real decision problems that present no uncertainty are extremely rare. 決策問題必須被定義。也就是說，一個人或組織必須面對的選擇只有一個指定的設置選項。對於每個選項，它必須是有把握的情況是，該