基于收视率预测的点电视官节目编排优化分析.docxVIP

072025037盛蓉 072025037盛蓉 基于收视率预测的电视节目编排优化研究 摘 要 电视台节目编排是指根据观众的收视规律和电视媒体的频道定位，将各类节 目按照时间顺序进行系统的排列组合，并形成电视节目编排表。良好的节目编排 计划是电视节目由制作进入播出承上启下的关键环节，特别在现今收视份额竞争 日益白热化的时代，各大电视台需要依据频道自身的品牌特点和时段特点以及观 众的收视需求做好节目编排，充分考虑各档节目之间的衔接、过渡和观众流动， 及时调整播放计划，确保核心的观众不调台。 本文首先介绍了电视节目收视率预测的两种方法，并通过某电视台的收视率 数据实例建立了收视率预测的回归模型。同时采用层次分析法(AHP)通过专家 问卷获得各类电视节目影响因素的权重，进而根据各因素的打分对该节目的收视 率进行预测。然后本文主要研究多频道运营的电视台如何进行节目配置，在最合 适的频道的最佳时段编播最合适的节目，以达到整体收视率最大的理想效果。通 过多频道多时段的节目编排，电视台能明确各个频道定位，尽可能满足观众的收 视需求，并减少各个频道间的观众重叠率；同时也可以了解自身的弱势与强势节 目类型，以便在节目制作时有所侧重。本文还结合电视台需要保证主流频道收视 率的实际情况，将电视台的编排决策分为两阶段，建立了两阶段动态的规划模型。 此外，本文还采用某电视台的编排案例对模型进行测算，计算出符合电视台 收益最大化的电视节目编排方案。模型的变量和约束超过700个，附录中还给出 了Lingo软件计算的相应程序。 关键词：收视率预测，节目编排，整数规划，两阶段模型 中图分类号：C931 072025037盛蓉 072025037盛蓉 基于收视率预测的电视节目编排优化研究 Abstra ct Television program scheduling is a methodology to sequence all types of TV programs according to the habit of audience and characters of the channel．A mature program scheduling is the key to combine conducting with publishing，especially in the year now the competition in audience rating is increasingly heated．Major television channels have their scheduling job done under the brands and time period characters to face the demand of audience．Meanwhile，they should take full account of the interface between TV programs，the transition of audience flow,to adjustment the televising list in time，to hold more audience． The paper introduces two methodoIogies in TV rating forecasting， and establishes a regression model with the real rating data from a TV station．The AHP method is used to adjust the rating forecasting．Then the paper focuses on multi·channel television program scheduling，that is for a TV station which owns several channels，how to figure out the program mostly fit for the period of time，to achieve the largest overall audience rating for the station．Through multi—channel， multi—period television Integer Programming，the station can clearly locate various channels to audience agreement maximization and reduce the overlap between au