the future of China-America relations外文电子书籍.pdf

The Future of U.S.-China Relations The Future of Aaron L. Friedberg U.S.-China Relations Is Conºict Inevitable? For four years follow- ing the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on September 11, 2001, relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) appeared to be on a steadily rising course. As U.S. decisionmakers turned their attention to the urgent dangers of terrorism and proliferation, they seemed less inclined to view China as an actual or potential strategic competitor and more hopeful that, in the post–September 11 world, all the great powers would be “united by common dangers . . . [and] increasingly . . . by common values.”1 As President George W. Bush began his second term in ofªce, however, there were signs of mounting friction between Washington and Beijing and in- creasing skepticism, on the U.S. side at least, that the relationship was as har- monious, and the interests (still less the values) of the two parties as compatible, as had often been claimed. Alarm over the possible lifting of the European arms embargo helped to draw renewed attention to the pace and scope of China’s military buildup. Frustration with stalled negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program caused some observers to question whether Beijing truly shared the U.S. commitment to halting proliferation. Re- ports of a PRC diplomatic “charm offensive” in Southeast Asia stirred fears of waning U.S. inºuence and incipient Chinese regional hegemony. Mean- while, evidence that China was expanding its interactions with Europe, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East raised the specter of a new global rivalry for power and inºuence. To this combustible mix w