德银-亚洲-宏观经济-亚洲经济月报：推动渐进加息.PDFVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Asia Economics Date 10 November 2017 Asia Economics Monthly Push for gradual rate hikes With the negative output gap closing, EM Asia central banks are likely to opt Kaushik Das for moderate rate hikes ahead – generally less aggressively than the Fed. Chief Economist (+91) 22 7180 4909 China: Our 2017 GDP growth forecast is 0.1ppts higher now at 6.8%. President kaushik.das@ Xi’s long-term view on China focuses more on the quality of growth rather than the speed, which we think is appropriate. We expect the leaders set the Juliana Lee growth target for 2018 more flexibly, and growth will slow to 6.3%. Chief Economist (+852) 2203 8312 Hong Kong: Fiscal and monetary policies are moving in opposite directions. j uliana.lee@ Last month’s Policy Address seemed to promise a more expansionary fiscal policy. The HKMA has, temporarily we think, suspended liquidity draining Michael Spencer, PhD operations but interest rates are most likely to continue rising through 2019. Chief Economist India: A sequential recovery in growth from July-Sep’