风电功率概率特征建模及风险分析应用电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

山东大学硕士学位论文4．2风电功率变化量的Markov链模型 山东大学硕士学位论文 4．2风电功率变化量的Markov链模型 42 4．2．1变化量样本空间构建 42 4．2．2变化量Markov链模型状态空间划分 ．43 4．2．3转移概率矩阵统计与计算 45 4．3基于超短期风电功率变化量的系统状态预估 46 4．3．1超短期风电功率变化量预测 46 4．3．2基于风电功率变化量的系统状态及其概率预估 47 4．4计及风电波动的电力系统在线风险分析 48 4．5算例分析 48 4．5．1风电功率变化量Markov链模型构建 ．48 4．5．2基于风电功率变化量Markov链模型的预测、状态预估与在线分析 5() 4．6小结 52 第五章总结与展望 53 5．1全文工作总结 53 5．2后期工作展望 54 参考文献 ．．57 致谢 ．．65 攻读硕士学位期间的研究成果 ．66 Ⅱ 万方数据 山东大学硕士学位论文 山东大学硕士学位论文 CoNTENTS Abstract(Chinese) ．I Abstract(Einglish) ．．III Chapter l IntI．oduction ．．1 1．1 Backl：rIound and Sigmificance ．1 1．1．1 Overview of Wind Power Development ．1 1．1．2 Problems in Large．scale Wind Power Integration into Power Grid ．．1 1．1．3 The Significance of Wind Power Probabilistic Charicteristic MOdeling ． ． ． ． ． 3 1．2 Description of Uncertainties ofWind Power锄d ItS I沁search Sta_tus 3 1．3 Risk Analysis Power SVstem Containing Wind F a】rrns 5 1．4 Main W6rk ofⅡ1is Thesis 7 Chapter 2 Longitudinal Moment Probabilistic Model ofWind Power ．9 2．1Inn．oduction 9 2．2 Review of Wind Power Longitudinal Moment锄d Its Distribution Model一11 2．3 Lon2itudinal Moment Markov Chain Model ofWind Power 一12 2．3．1 Marl∞v Chain Model锄d t11e Matrix ofTr锄sition Probabilities 一12 2．3．2 Constructing of State Space 12 2．3．3 The Set ofTr觚sition Probabilities Matrices ．．13 2．3．4 Markov Prope晰Test ．．16 2．4 Wind Power Forecasting Based Longitudinal Markov Chain Model ．．1 7 2．4．1 Single．step Forecasting Method ofWind Power ．1 7 2．4．2 Multi．step Forecasting Method ofWind Power ． ． ． ． ． ．．1 9 2．5 CaSe Studv ．．20 2．5．1 Constmcting of Longitudinal Markov Chain Model of Wind Power 20 2．5．2 ForecaSting I沁sults and Analysis 一22 2．6 Summarv ．25 Chapter 3蹦sk Analysis for Day-Ahead Dispatching Plan Based L0ngitudinal Markov Chain Model of Wind Power ．27 3．1111仃．0duction ．27 3．2