区域旱灾综合风险评价理论探讨.pdf

区域旱灾综合风险评估理论探讨 1 1 2 3 2 李磊 ，席占生 ，朱永楠 ，金菊良 ，梁忠民 （1. 国核电力规划设计研究院, 北京 100095; 2. 河海大学水文水资源学院, 南京 210098; 3. 合肥工业大 学土木与水利工程学院, 合肥 230009; ） 摘要：本文分析了旱灾系统的结构体系，在此基础上将旱灾风险分为致旱因子危险性、孕灾环境不稳定性 和承灾体脆弱性三个子系统，对其研究内容、各子系统相互关系及分析方法进行了详细阐述，最终建立旱 灾综合风险评估指标体系，对旱灾风险进行了全面刻画。根据区域旱灾风险评估的目的是对旱灾发生发展 进行趋势分析和对多个区域旱灾风险进行区划，本文将动态评估思想和区划聚类思想结合起来，提出了基 于投影寻踪聚类思想的旱灾综合风险动态评估模型。通过完整的基本理论和研究方法论述，最终为区域旱 灾综合风险评估提供了依据。 关键词：区域旱灾风险；风险评估；风险区划；动态评估；评估指标体系。 中图分类号：TV 213.4 文献标志码：A Regional Drought Comprehensive Risk Evaluation Theory Investigation 1 2 3 2 LI Lei , XI Zhan-sheng, ZHU Yong-nan , JIN Ju-liang , LIANG Zhong-min (1. State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design Research Institute; Beijing 100095; 2. College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University Nanjing 210098; 3. College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, AnHui Hefei 230009) Abstract: Based on system theory, we analyze the drought structural system, and divide drought risk system into three subsystems: hazard-formation factors, hazard-formation environments, and hazard-affected bodies. Then we analyze the research purpose, research content, research method, and relationship of three subsystems. Choosing the main indexes, we establish a drought comprehensive index system to describe regional drought risk roundly. The purpose of regional drought risk evaluation is drought occurrence and development trend analysis and multiple regional drought risk zoning, so we combine dynamic evaluation model and zoning clustering ideas, and establish a regional Drought Comprehensive Risk Dynamic Evaluation Method based on Projection Pursuit Clustering Idea. In this pap