城市洪水风险评价与防洪方案优选的集对分析方法研究市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

城市洪水风险评价与防洪方案优选的集对分析方法研究摘 城市洪水风险评价与防洪方案优选的集对分析方法研究 摘 要 城市洪水灾害评价系统是一个包括随机性、模糊性和灰色性等多种不确定 性的复杂系统。本文将集对分析方法较系统地应用到城市洪水领域中，开展了 集对分析在城市洪水危险性、易损性以及防洪方案优选评价三方面的应用研 究。论文的主要研究成果如下； 1．城市洪水灾害系统是一多层次、多指标、且具有大量不确定性的复杂大 系统。给出了用集对分析方法简化单指标隶属度的计算方法，建立用于城市洪 水灾害系统危险性评价的基于集对分析的可变模糊识别模型，并将该模型应用 于南京市洪水灾害危险性评价实例中。 2．如何合理确定评价系统各指标权重和如何有效处理分配过程中的模糊 随机性是建立城市洪水易损性评价模型的两个关键问题。运用基于加速遗传算 法的模糊层次分析法确定各指标权重，建立适用于城市洪水灾害易损性评价的 基于模糊层次分析法的集对分析新模型，并在湖南省29个城市洪涝灾害易损性 评价中开展了应用研究。 3．在对分析当前中国城市洪水灾害防洪减灾工作研究背景与现状分析研 究现状的基础上，指出当前中国城市防洪减灾存在的问题以及开展城市防洪方 案优选的重要性及紧迫性，给出计算差异度系数和偏联系数的新方法，建立适 用于城市防洪方案优选的集对分析新模型，并在实际城市防洪方案优选中开展了 应用。 关键词：城市洪水灾害；集对分析；危险性；易损性；方案优选 Research Research of Set Pair Analysis Method to Urban Flood Risk Assessment and Flood Control Program Optimization Abstract Urban flood disaster assessment system is of gerat complexity,including a variety of uncertainties，such as stochastic，fuzzy,伊ay and SO on．In this paper the principle of set pair analysis has been introduced systematically and has been studied for characteristics of urban flood danger,vulnerability and flood control program optimization in urban flood fields．Principal contents and finding are as follows： 1．Urban flood disaster system is a multi—level，multi-index and complicated system wim a lot of uncertainty．Set pair analysis is used for calculating the single index subject in the paper．Variable fuzzy model，which is used for the assessment of urban flood disaster system’danger and applied to assess the Nanjing’flood disaster assessmnet，on set pair analysis is established． 2．The two key problems of establishing the urban flood vulnerability assessmnet’model are how to ascertain index weight of assessment system and effectively deal with the fuzzy randomicity of the distribution．In this paper,set pair analysis’new model-based FAHP is established for vulnerability assessment of urban flood and algorithm Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on accelerating genetic is used for ascertain the index weight，Which was carried out Flood Vulnerabi