城市轨道交通客流预测模型及方法研究道路与铁道工程专业论文.docxVIP

西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第Ⅱ页 Abstract Preliminary studies in any project play an important role in guiding．Urban rail transportation，as one of the great懿t urban infrastructure construction projects， and flow forecast is the key,is more important．The traditional four-phase methods． with their advantages．are popular in the countrys urban rail traffic flow forecasting applications．It’S necessary to consummate the traditional methods． 111e preparatory work of four-phase flow prediction metho小枷nsportacion cell allocation was studied earlier in this paper．Follow the general principles and with transportation station for the center to refine transportation ceU．In order to the gather passengers and the district of rail transit network combined more closely． Based on the analysis and summarizes about the current state of flow forecasting models．the author bnngs a new flow forecasting model：“early fast．track’_ ‘‘present condition 0D’’ 一 ‘long-term fast-track’．The pattern makes preparatory work of 0D Investigation a major research content on the basis of detailed travel survey．By the analysis．the method will determine the form about long-term results of the rapid rail line network．In this paper,the author makes use off‘trip generation’一‘transportation method division”专‘trip distribution’’ —》‘traffic assignment’’to study the various steps of the four-phase flow prediction method．Its purpose is to separate the track traf3Eic flow嬲soon as possible from the overall passengers in order to reduce the workload of late．In the stage of trip generation,traffic area will be refined in different nature of use．The development strength of traffic area is as the important indicators to get the number of passenger flow respectively．Transportation method division Was study in three stages：first of a11．separating the traffic flow which has no competition with rail Waffle．and then use the impact of two important indicators of travel time and travel costs，and gradually sepm ate track traf