柑橘产量风险分区与保险费率厘定-湖南农业大学学报.PDFVIP

( ) 2017 10 18 5 Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Sciences), Oct. 2017, 18(5):034–040 DOI: 10.13331/ki.jhau(ss).2017.05.005 柑橘产量风险分区与保险费率厘定 ——基于湘南地区的案例分析 李朝晖，贺潜妮 ( 410128) 摘 要() Gamma Weibull 20 () 关 键 词 中图分类号F840.66 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1009–2013(2017)05–0034–07 Risk zoning and premium rate of citrus yield insurance: Based on a case of southern Hunan province LI Zhaohui, HE Qianni (School of Economics, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China) Abstract: Following the principle of regional differences in risk and similarity within districts, according to county (city)historical data of citrus yield risk and insurance, based on the relative integrity of the administrative region, using factor analysis method, this paper first zoned the risk, then using normal distribution, Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution parameter model, this paper fit the citrus yield insurance premium rate in 20 counties of southern Hunan province, and at last the paper made final modification for the premium rate. The results show that: The premium pure rate of citrus area yield is basically in line with the risk ordering: the highest risk area higher risk area lower risk area the lowest risk area, which indicates that the differential premium rate can properly reflect and match the regional risk and the insurance liability. The actual insurance rate is not only related to risks, but also relates to the safety factor, operating expenses and savings rates for the scheduled rate, it is necessary to adjust the rate at the area where estimated value and risk rank are obviously in