transmission of the us subprime crisis to emerging markets：美国次贷危 机对新兴市 场的传导.pdfVIP

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES TRANSMISSION OF THE U.S. SUBPRIME CRISIS TO EMERGING MARKETS: EVIDENCE ON THE DECOUPLING-RECOUPLING HYPOTHESIS Michael P. Dooley Michael M. Hutchison Working Paper 15120 /papers/w15120 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2009 This paper was prepared for the JIMF/Warwick Conference on April 6, 2009. We thank Mahir Binici and Gurnain Pasricha for data collection and helpful comments from participants at the conference, especially Duncan Shand, Michael Melvin and Mark Taylor. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2009 by Michael P. Dooley and Michael M. Hutchison. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets: Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis Michael P. Dooley and Michael M. Hutchison NBER Working Paper No. 15120 June 2009 JEL No. F3,F36,F41 ABSTRACT We find that emerging markets appeared to be somewhat insulated from developments in U.S. financial markets from early 2007 to summer 2008. From that point on, however, emerging markets responded very st