基于贝叶斯网络的配电网可靠性及其经济性研究-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

AB AB STRACT ABSTRACT：With the development of social economy and people’S life—quality, the requirement to the electric energy quality has been more and more rigorous．So analyzing the reliability of distribution system is necessary． Firstly,the paper proposes Bayesian forecasting model for evaluating the original parameters of the distribution network components．It establishes the prior information，according to historical information or the design experiences and the posterior distribution of the parameters On the basis of sample data，by which we can do point estimation or interval estimation，predict the future trend．This model solves the problems that calculates accuracy according to lack of accuracy in Network reliability of the raw data． Secondly,based on a wide range of domestic and international distribution system reliability analysis of the literature,this paper considers the impact of comprehensive and reliable distribution system of the various factors，network constraints in the process of load transfer,establishes Bayesian network model and assesses complex distribution network reliability．It Can not only assessing the reliability indices of the distribution system，but also analyze affection of components in the system to the system reliability,then we can get the weak link in that system to be improved． Large power grids combined with distributed generation is considered to be the main method to save investment and reduce energy consumption．However,adding distributed energy,the operation character of the system and the reliability of the indicators will be affected．Due to the wind and random fluctuations．wind power access to the distributed power distribution system will affect the reliability of the system．This Paper establishes the reliability models：wind turbine power into the distribution network，analyzes the impact of climatic conditions to the reliability． Only wind power in the distribution network to eliminate the adverse effects，the electricity