基于贝叶斯方法的结构稳健优化-工程力学专业论文.docxVIP

基于贝叶斯方法的结构稳健优化Structural 基于贝叶斯方法的结构稳健优化 Structural Robust Optimization Based on Bayesian Method Ab stract As an advanced technology tO improve product quality，robust optimization design is able to take into aecourlt the actual existence of various uncertainties．Performance fluctuafion caused by variOUS kinds of uncertainty in reality call be reduced witllOUt eliminating the uncertainty source by using robust optimization design．Therefore，this technology has been widely used in many areas，such as manufacturing，aeronautics and astronautics，mechanical design，electronics，finance，chemistry and pharmacy，et a1．Such strong demand makes robust optimization design receive wide attention and remarkable achievements．Robust optimization design which is based on classical statistics is completed on large number of sample data． But in many cases，it i hard tO obtain large enough numbers of testing data for a practical engineering problem as limited by time consumption，financial support，technical level，etc． Therefore，a structural robust optimization based on Bayesian method iS proposed to eliminate the Iimit of size of sample set by making full tlSe of prior information in estimation of parameters the basis of sample through Bayesian theorem in the present paper． At first，Bayesian method is used to estimate the probability distributions of parameters of ground motion models．Estimation of parameters is updated vfith increasing of sample information when the prior information and sample information are taken into consideration together． Then，because finding a reasonable prior distribution is all important part and a major problem in Bayesian theory，the posterior estimation including point estimation and interval estimation on the two parameters，mean and variance，of random variable with normal distribution is proposed under the same sample set．These results are discussed for different prior distributions and twO different cases of sampling，one for a large number of sample and the oth