基于地理信息系统平台的城市电网空间负荷预测-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 摘 要 在配电网规划中，不仅要预测负荷的量，还要预测负荷的位置，即负荷的 空闻分布。只有在确定了未来负荷空间分布的基础上，才能迸行配电网的布点 和布线规划。 本文首先介绍了电力负荷预测的相关概念及做负荷预测工作的重要意义； 其次，对现有的负荷预测方法送行研究。并分儿火类讨论分析： 然后，简要介绍了现有的地理信息系统(Geographic Information System， GIS)开发平台，并选用Mapinfo做为本课题中的GIS开发系统； 接下来是本文重点，利用地理信息系统空间信息分布的功能，研究了配电 网空间负荷短期预测方法。将GIS的空问信息分析功能应用于配网空间负荷预 测的研究，综合利用灰色理论及遗传规划(Genetic Programming，GP)的优点， 提出了一种根据馈线的历史峰值负荷进行外推的组合空间负荷预测法：首先根 据实际馈线路径和配网GIS图形分层，运用图层叠媚分析得到馈线的实际供电 范围；接着采用灰色关联度聚类方法剥馈线负荷增长曲线进行聚类分析；最后 采用GP来对灰色聚类结果进行符号回归，分别得到每一类曲线的最佳拟合曲 线形式。 实际算例表明该种方法优于其它趋势法。 关键词配网，空间负荷预测，灰色理论，遗传规划，地理信息系统 东北电力大学硕士学位论文Abstract 东北电力大学硕士学位论文 Abstract Not only magnitudes of loads forecasting，but also location of loads should be done for the load forecasting of the distribution network planning，which also means loads spatial distribution．The nodes and lines planning could be done only after determine the spatial loads distribution correctly． It introduces the electric power load forecasting theory systematically and important values of the work firstly； SecondlN the present load forecasting method should be studied and divided to many kinds that could be discussed and analysis； Thirdly,it introduces the present Geographic Information System(GIS) development platform in brief,and the Mapinfo is selected to GIS development system of this task． The follows arc the importance of the text．Based 011 the Geographic Information System spatial information analysis function，it studies on the SLF．It proposes a combined SLF method to extrapolate feeder load groxⅣth by using feeder’S history peak value and the merits of gray theory and Genetic Programming (GP)．At first，it gets the real power-supply area by using layer overlap analysis， based on practical feeder path and distribution GIS map layer．SecondlN it adopts gray incidence degree method to cluster the feeder load growth curve．At last，it gets the optimized curve fitting of every cluster by using GP method tO process the gray cluster results． The real instance shows that this method has the bette